Current Market Conditions
Bitcoin remains confined within a fragile range as unrealized losses climb and long-term holders realize over $1 billion in daily profits while patient demand prevents deeper declines, according to Glassnode analysis.
The market trades between the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $102,700 and the True Market Mean at $81,300. Unrealized losses continue to expand even as the price has rebounded from the Nov. 22 low to roughly $92,700. Glassnode data shows the 30-day simple moving average Entity-Adjusted Realized Loss reached $555 million per day, the highest level since the FTX collapse, indicating mounting frustration among top buyers.
The Relative Unrealized Loss climbed to 4.4% after nearly two years below 2%, marking a shift from euphoria to elevated stress. Holders with positions longer than one year increased their realized profit above $1 billion per day during the recent bounce, peaking at a new all-time high of over $1.3 billion. Together, these forces explain why the market struggles to reclaim the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis despite patient demand absorbing distribution.
Institutional and Trading Activity
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs logged another quiet week with the three-day average of net flows remaining consistently below zero. The cooling trend that began in late November marks a departure from the robust inflow regime that supported price appreciation earlier in the year. Redemptions have been steady across several major issuers, underscoring a more risk-averse stance among institutional allocators as broader market conditions remain unsettled.
Trading activity weakened through November and into December, with spot relative volume sitting near the lower bound of its 30-day range. The contraction reflects more defensive positioning across the board with fewer liquidity-driven flows available to absorb volatility or sustain directional moves. Futures markets show limited appetite for leverage, with open interest failing to rebuild meaningfully and funding rates pinned near neutral.
Options Market Sentiment
Options markets reveal defensive positioning, with traders bidding short-dated implied volatility and accumulating both wings. The 25-delta skew climbed to roughly 11% in the one-week tenor, indicating a clear pickup in demand for short-dated downside insurance ahead of the FOMC meeting. Skew remains tightly clustered across maturities ranging from 10.3% to 13.6%, suggesting preference for put protection is broad-based across the curve rather than isolated stress confined to the front end.
Weekly flow data shows that premiums bought dominate total notional flow, with a slight lead from puts. This reflects a regime of volatility accumulation rather than directional bias. When traders purchase both wings, it signals hedging and convexity-seeking behavior rather than sentiment-driven speculation. Combined with rising implied volatility and a downside-leaning skew, the flow profile suggests market participants are preparing for a volatility event with bias toward the downside.
Outlook and Key Levels
Market structure suggests a weak but stable range held up by patient demand yet constrained by persistent sell pressure. The short-term path depends on whether liquidity improves and sellers relent. Key upper thresholds to reclaim are the 0.75 cost-basis quantile at $95,000, followed by the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis. Until then, the True Market Mean remains the most probable bottom-formation zone, barring a new macro shock.