The long-term indicators for Bitcoin suggest a continued upward trend, despite narratives that the cycle has ended. At the start of October, the 200-week moving average (WMA) surpassed the $53,000 threshold, while the realized price, which represents the average cost within the blockchain, rose to $54,000. Although the market views the last quarter of the year as the “peak,” these dual metrics have historically aligned with early phases of bullish processes, indicating a tendency for prices to maintain an upward trajectory. The main question for decision‑makers in the cryptocurrency market is whether the realized price can maintain its position above the 200‑WMA.
Testing the Threshold: 200-Week Average and Realized Price
The 200‑WMA, known for its consistent upward trend, measures the market’s long‑term momentum, while the realized price reflects the average cost at which all circulating BTC was last moved. Recent data show that the realized price has asserted dominance over the 200‑WMA in the $54,000/$53,000 band. As long as pricing remains above this threshold, the capital inflow dynamic aligns with long‑term investor behavior, and historical pullbacks are absorbed within a medium‑term bullish trend.
During periods when the model accurately holds, the realized price remaining above the 200‑WMA has resulted in increased on‑chain profitability ratios, broader market depth, and higher low formations. Although short‑term volatility persists, the critical confirmation of the main trend is the positive divergence between these two series.
Insights from Historical Cycles
During the bullish phases of 2017 and 2021, when the realized price was above the 200‑WMA, the price momentum continued. As the gap widened, risk appetite increased. A narrowing gap and a downward break signaled the start of bearish periods, indicating a trend reversal. After the negative divergence observed in 2022, the subsequent convergence in the current phase suggests that upward pressure is gaining strength.
Despite widespread narratives about the “end of the cycle” for the last quarter of the year, the current position of the indicator pair supports the early‑mid phase thesis. The fundamental criterion for the market will be the durability of the realized price above the 200‑WMA and whether the gap widens; expansion lays the groundwork for new ascending legs.