Bitcoin is once again fighting a crucial battle at the $100,000 level. According to the latest market report by Glassnode, the price dropped below the cost base of short-term investors at $112,500, marking the end of the last bull phase. Consequently, the market retracted by 21%, entering a precarious equilibrium. Experts emphasize that while the current structure has not evolved into panic selling, long-term investors continue to offload their holdings.
Increased Selling Pressure Following Demand Decline
Blockchain indicators reveal that Bitcoin is struggling to maintain its position around $100,000, clearly indicating a lack of demand. Even though 71% of the supply remains in profit below the short-term investors’ cost level, this percentage suggests a typical correction range. Glassnode’s “active investor realized price” data highlights the $88,500 level as significant downward structural support. Historically, this level formed the foundation for prolonged consolidation periods in previous cycles.
Since July, the supply held by long-term investors has decreased by 300,000 BTC. This points to a shift from “selling at the peak” behavior earlier in the cycle to “selling on the decline”. Even seasoned investors opting to realize their gains is considered a vital signal of deepening distrust in the market’s direction.
Market on the Defensive as Institutional Interest Fades
In the United States, net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have ranged between $150 million and $700 million daily over the past two weeks. Contrary to the strong inflows observed in September and October, the reversal in fund flows highlights a notable slowdown in institutional interest. Spot exchanges, as reflected by CVD data, show a prevailing selling pressure. While Binance and other major exchanges continue to see net outflows, even Coinbase exhibits a neutral trend.
In the futures market, the unwinding of leveraged positions caused the directional premium to drop from $338 million to $118 million. Derivatives traders are noticeably steering away from aggressive long positions, favoring neutral risk management. Meanwhile, in the options market, demand is rising for put options with a strike price of $100,000, and increasing premiums suggest investors prefer hedging strategies over “buying the dip”.