Bitcoin's (BTC) price climbed 4.5% in the past day, surging back above $106,500 amidst growing optimism that Washington’s shutdown standoff may finally be resolved this week.
Despite the rebound in the broader market and Bitcoin’s continued hold of the Golden Line, a top analyst opined that a brutal breakdown is coming.
Major Dump Incoming?
Crypto analyst Doctor Profit stated that Bitcoin is currently sitting at a historic support point. They noted that since the beginning of the bull market in March 2023, it has never lost the Golden Line level, which presently sits around $99,200, slightly below the psychological $100,000 barrier.
The analyst explained that on the weekly timeframe, BTC has always bounced above this line and has never closed below it. Therefore, if a weekly close below this level occurs, it would be a strong argument for bullish momentum to vanish, as this level is one of the most essential bull-bear indicators to consider.
Doctor Profit mentioned that although they have always bought more Bitcoin at the Golden Line throughout the entire bull market, and it has worked well historically, this time they are not buying at the Golden Line and believe that eventually the crypto asset will lose this important level.
However, the analyst stated that breaking this level requires strong selling pressure. They acknowledged that BTC has bounced from the Golden Line again, but this does not change their macro bearish view. While confirming that they continue to hold shorts from the $115,000 to $125,000 region, they said a breakdown below the Golden Line is just a matter of time.
There is also a large liquidity cluster around $116,000 to $117,000. If the market revisits that region, the analyst plans to add more to shorts. There could be more manipulation moves in the coming days designed to build liquidity to the downside. Market makers are not ready to send Bitcoin into the next leg down, and they first want to create more liquidity, which the analyst said appears to be working.
Leverage has increased heavily this week, particularly in long positions on altcoins, and this type of environment is typical before the next major drop.
Market makers are setting trap after trap before the next leg down. Enjoy your tea, wait, dont over-trade.
Rally Made Fade Fast
Matrixport also noted a potential oversold setup developing. According to their latest commentary, BTC’s RSI recently dipped to 35, which has historically been a zone where tactical dip-buyers begin to re-engage. Despite near-term catalysts such as comments from Donald Trump hinting at potential $2,000 stimulus-style payments to Americans in addition to a resolution to the US government shutdown, Matrixport warned that whether this is enough to reignite risk appetite fully remains uncertain.
ETF data also shows outflows over the past week, which indicates institutional capital may be stepping aside for now. These catalysts alone may not be sufficient to drive a lasting reversal.