Key takeaways:
- •Bitcoin’s institution-driven rally has sidelined retail-heavy memecoins.
- •Top memecoins, DOGE, PEPE and TRUMP, show short-term rebound potential for Q4.
Bitcoin (BTC) extended its 2025 bull market to fresh highs above $125,000 over the weekend, prompting top altcoins like Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL) and BNB (BNB) to rise in tandem.
Top memecoins, however, have failed to keep pace with the overall crypto boom this year.
DOGE, TRUMP and other memecoins slump
Bitcoin has gained more than 32% year-to-date, mirroring an overall boom across risk markets led by a declining US dollar. BTC has also benefited from persistent demand from the US-based spot ETFs and global corporations.
By contrast, memecoins, once a proxy for retail speculation, have struggled.
That includes the memecoin leader Dogecoin (DOGE), whose valuation has slipped 20.20% year-to-date, as well as Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Pepe (PEPE), which have plunged 41.41% and 48.55%, respectively, in the same period.
Solana-based Bonk (BONK) is down 32.80% and the Official Trump (TRUMP) token, launched earlier this year, has dipped by more than 83% from its highs. AICell has crashed by over 96%.
Solana’s new memecoin mints drop by over 75%
The number of new memecoins graduating from Solana-based launchpads has dropped sharply since July, according to data from Dune Analytics.
At the height of the mid-2025 mania, Solana was minting almost 400 new meme tokens a day. By late August, that figure had plunged below 100, reflecting a more than 75% decline in retail participation and speculative capital.
The cooldown suggests fading retail interest in memecoins, with traders increasingly shifting toward prediction markets, according to data compiled by Analyst MovieTime Dune.
It shows that Solana memecoins handled $864.8 million in volume during the week of Sept. 21–28, compared with $1.54 billion across prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
That’s nearly 1.8 times higher, underscoring how the rise of institutional narratives and competing speculation venues is drawing retail attention away from the memecoin sector.
Can top memecoins rise again in Q4?
Based on technical setups, some memecoins are exhibiting signs of a late-stage revival in Q4 2025.
That includes DOGE, which is forming what appears to be an ascending triangle pattern after dropping by over 70% from its local high.
A breakout above the triangle’s upper trendline near $0.28 could confirm a bullish continuation setup, potentially targeting $0.41, up 60% from current levels, by year’s end.
Related: How high can DOGE price go as first Dogecoin ETF goes live?
Conversely, a break below the lower trendline may send DOGE price toward the ascending trendline support, aligning with the 200‑3D exponential moving average (200‑3D EMA; the blue wave) at around $0.195.
Another top‑volume memecoin, Pepe (PEPE), is forming a similar bullish reversal structure, with a year‑end target of $0.00002230, representing a 126% increase from current price levels.
Meanwhile, TRUMP’s price is currently testing resistance from its multimonth descending trendline near $8.30–$8.35, aligning with the 20‑day EMA.
A breakout above this zone could open the door to the $9.26–$10.75 Fib retracement range — the latter aligning with the 200‑day EMA (the blue wave) — by the year’s end.
Failure to clear resistance risks another pullback toward the $7.30 accumulation zone.