For much of crypto’s history, traders treated liquidity charts as the key to predicting Bitcoin’s next move. Expanding money supply meant rising prices, while tightening liquidity often marked the start of corrections. But according to a recent commentary from 10x Research, that model no longer fits today’s market.
“Liquidity matters,” the firm noted, “but Bitcoin isn’t reacting to it anymore, it’s reacting to actual flows.” In other words, the direction of Bitcoin’s price now depends on where capital is moving, not how much liquidity exists in the broader economy.
When Liquidity Rose but Bitcoin Didn’t
10x Research pointed to several moments that prove the shift. In late 2024, global money supply increased significantly, yet Bitcoin’s price stayed stagnant. The same pattern repeated in April 2025 and again recently. Each time, the culprit wasn’t a failure of macro models, but a lack of active inflows.
“Whales were absorbing, mega-whales were distributing, and ETF inflows had paused,” the firm explained. “Once demand returned after the PCE data, Bitcoin snapped back. It was never about money supply, it was about flows.”
That distinction, they argue, defines this cycle. Liquidity may create the conditions for growth, but it no longer guarantees it. Instead, the real driver is measurable capital movement, ETF subscriptions, whale transactions, and exchange inflows.
Flows Write the Script
10x Research summarized the idea with a simple formula: “Liquidity sets the stage. Flows write the script.” Until both align, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound. When they finally converge, the firm warned, the move could be “violent”, a sudden breakout that most traders will claim they didn’t see coming.
The analysis also dismisses the popular theory of a delayed reaction between liquidity and price. “There is no magical 13-week lag,” the team wrote. “In today’s fast-moving market, traders must monitor real-time flows, not hypothetical liquidity data.”
Rethinking Market Models
10x Research’s closing question was directed at the broader trading community: do professionals still believe that macro liquidity drives Bitcoin in real time, or is this cycle proving that flows now matter more than liquidity lag models?
Their stance is clear, liquidity may provide the backdrop, but without capital actively entering the market, Bitcoin will not move. The focus, they suggest, should shift from watching central bank balance sheets to tracking actual inflows and outflows across ETFs, exchanges, and large holders.
In this market, flows are the new indicator, and they are writing Bitcoin’s story one transaction at a time.