Bitcoin Just Triggered Its Rarest Oversold Signal – Is a Major Rebound Loading?

Key Takeaways

• •
  A core on-chain valuation metric has dropped to its lowest reading ever, indicating deep discount territory.
• •
  Similar conditions marked the early stages of major long-term rebounds in 2018 and 2022.
• •
  Bitcoin’s sharp $100B market-cap recovery may reflect accumulation despite recent volatility.

Instead of looking at price charts or funding rates, analyst Michael van de Poppe zeroed in on Bitcoin’s 2-year rolling MVRV Z-Score, and the math behind it is catching analysts off guard. The indicator has fallen to levels never recorded in Bitcoin’s entire price history, not even during the COVID crash, the FTX meltdown, or the bottom of the 2018 bear market.

A Metric With a Track Record of Calling Bottoms

Rather than measuring hype or momentum, the MVRV Z-Score compares what investors paid for their coins against what the market says they’re worth today. When the score collapses, it means most holders are sitting on unrealized losses — a condition that historically marks long-term accumulation phases.

The only other moments that came close:

• •
  December 2018, when BTC traded near $3,200
• •
  November 2022, when Bitcoin sank under $16,000 at the peak of capitulation

Both events were followed by some of Bitcoin’s strongest multi-month rebounds.

Poppe’s View on the Current Setup

Instead of predicting exact timing, Poppe emphasized the psychological effect of such readings. In his view, investors often crowd into the market at extreme highs and exit when long-term value indicators signal opportunity.

His message to followers was blunt: markets reward patience, not panic.

Present Market Context

Bitcoin has climbed back above $91,500, recovering from last week’s dip below $86,000. That rebound injected nearly $100 billion into Bitcoin’s market capitalization in under 24 hours, though BTC remains about 20% lower than a month ago.

While volatility dominates headlines, the on-chain signal paints a different picture — one in which long-term capital may be positioning quietly rather than rushing in aggressively.

Why This Moment Matters

The MVRV Z-Score does not attempt to identify exact reversal dates. Its historical value lies in identifying periods when selling has been exhausted and accumulation becomes more attractive than distribution. If previous cycles are any indication, a deeply negative reading has tended to appear near the beginning of multi-month recoveries, not during blow-off tops.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.