Bitcoin Liquidity Signals a Turning Point
Bitcoin's stablecoin ratio has fallen to levels historically associated with bottoms for BTC, according to recent analysis. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has returned to its "lower historical range (13) — the same zone that marked bottoms in mid-2021, and throughout 2024," stated CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV. He added that each of these instances preceded a period of quiet trading for Bitcoin before a strong rebound.
This low SSR indicates that stablecoin liquidity is accumulating again, potentially setting the stage for a market recovery or the final bullish phase of the current cycle.
The Binance Bitcoin/Stablecoin Reserve Ratio (SRR) supports this observation. Data shows rising stablecoin reserves on Binance while BTC reserves are shrinking. According to the analyst, this pattern has consistently occurred before market recoveries. "We’re witnessing a liquidity configuration that has only appeared a handful of times since 2020, and each instance marked a pivotal moment for Bitcoin's trajectory," the analyst noted.
The increase in stablecoin supply suggests that more capital is available on the sidelines, ready to be deployed into the crypto market. Historically, this pattern emerges during periods of structural capitulation or seller exhaustion, when less committed investors exit and stronger hands accumulate assets quietly.
Furthermore, André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, highlighted that the short-term holder seller exhaustion constant has reached its lowest value since August 2023. This metric typically reaches such lows when volatility is low, but on-chain losses are high, indicating significant seller exhaustion. Previous instances of this metric reaching similar levels preceded substantial upside volatility, including a 190% price increase in BTC from $25,300 to $74,000 between August 2023 and March 2024.
Sellers exhausted ✅ pic.twitter.com/ROTggxDKfy
— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) November 11, 2025
Previous reports also indicated that the MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) suggested BTC may have bottomed at $98,000 due to seller exhaustion.
Bitcoin's Falling Wedge Targets $124,000
The daily candlestick chart for BTC/USD shows the pair trading within a falling wedge pattern. This pattern formed after the price was rejected from the upper trendline at $107,000. Falling wedges are generally considered bullish reversal patterns, and Bitcoin's consolidation within these trendlines suggests that the current downtrend may be concluding.
Analyst Mister Crypto commented on X, stating, "Bitcoin is trading in this falling wedge. The breakout is so close now." A confirmed daily candlestick close above $107,000 would validate this pattern, potentially paving the way for Bitcoin's ascent toward the wedge's bullish target of $124,000. This target represents a 19% increase from the current price and aligns with Bitcoin's previous peak reached on August 14.
Private wealth manager Swissblock reported that the "Risk-Off Signal has shifted back to a low-risk regime, showing that selling pressure is easing as Bitcoin recovers." They added, "BTC now needs to reclaim $108.5K–$110K, confirming recovery as risk stabilizes and goes to 0."
