Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared a striking chart comparing Bitcoin’s valuation to gold, and the message behind it is clear: Bitcoin may be far cheaper than many think when viewed through this lens. With gold recently pumping and BTC undergoing a sharp correction, the BTC/Gold ratio has dropped back to a level that historically marks major cycle bottoms.
He summed it up simply: “I think a better metric to be looking at is the valuation of Bitcoin vs. gold.”
What the BTC/Gold Chart Actually Shows
The chart he shared is a weekly BTCUSD/GOLD ratio on Bitstamp, with a long-term moving average (300-week SMA) drawn across it. There are also two green boxes highlighting previous bottoming zones, and the current price is pressing directly into the same band.
Structurally, the chart has three big cycles:
- •A first major expansion phase where the ratio climbed, then cooled off into a multi-year consolidation.
- •A second explosive rally into the 2021 cycle peak, where BTC massively outperformed gold.
- •The current phase: a long grind lower from those highs back toward the 300-week moving average.
Each time the ratio touched or slightly undercut that 300-SMA in the past, bitcoin/gold valuations reset and major upside followed. Those green boxes on the chart mark those moments – late 2018/2019 and again around mid-2022. Both zones ended up being macro “cheap BTC vs gold” areas.
Right now, the ratio is sitting on that same moving average again, around the 21 level. In van de Poppe’s words, markets “usually bottom out on [the] 300-SMA in BTC/USD vs. gold.” If that pattern repeats, the current correction in Bitcoin may be much closer to the bottom of this leg than the top of the cycle.
Why Gold’s Rally Matters for Bitcoin’s Upside
The other key piece of context is gold’s performance. Gold has been pushing higher and even gone borderline parabolic on its own chart. If gold is repricing upward as a macro hedge and store of value, that automatically lifts the ceiling for Bitcoin as well.
Right now, the ratio value is around 21. The last major high came in near 40. That means Bitcoin could double its outperformance versus gold before even matching the prior peak in relative terms.
Van de Poppe lays out a simple example: even if Bitcoin rallies to 150,000 or 175,000 dollars while gold holds around its current range, the BTC/Gold ratio still would not make a new high. In other words, BTC can move substantially higher in dollar terms and still be “less stretched” relative to gold than it was in the previous cycle.
This is why he argues the current cycle is “far from over.” The BTC/Gold chart doesn’t show a blow-off top. It shows a strong asset retracing to a long-term average while the base asset (gold) strengthens, which historically has been a constructive setup, not a terminal one.
The Role of the 300-Week Moving Average
The 300-week moving average on the ratio acts like a mean reversion line. In prior cycles:
- •When BTC massively outperformed gold, the ratio rocketed far above the 300-SMA and later reverted.
- •During deep bear phases, price bled back down into that average, often briefly undercutting it before reversing.
The current touch of the 300-SMA lines up with other cycle markers:
- •Bitcoin’s production cost (based on hash rate, energy, and equipment) is not far away from the current BTC price.
- •Sentiment has cooled significantly from the euphoric post-halving and ETF periods.
- •On-chain data and derivatives positioning both indicate washed-out leverage compared to the early 2025 euphoria.
Each of these factors on its own doesn’t guarantee a bottom, but together with the BTC/Gold 300-SMA, they paint a consistent picture: this is historically where long-term buyers have started to step in, not exit.
RSI and Trend Context on the Ratio
The RSI at the top of the chart also supports the “reset, not exhaustion” view. During prior peaks in the ratio, RSI pushed into very high territory, signaling extreme outperformance of BTC versus gold. Today, RSI is much lower, closer to neutral-to-oversold levels for this timeframe.
That suggests the ratio has already digested a lot of excess. BTC has been underperforming gold for months, not just for a few volatile weeks. This kind of prolonged underperformance phase is typical of mid-cycle resets rather than final tops.
Taken together, van de Poppe’s analysis implies a few key things:
- •The BTC/Gold ratio is sitting at a historically important support zone, where previous cycles have bottomed.
- •Gold’s strong performance expands the room Bitcoin has to run in dollar terms without looking overvalued on a relative basis.
- •A move to six figures for BTC does not necessarily mean the asset is in a bubble when viewed against gold, especially if the ratio stays below its previous high.
Ultimately, the chart doesn’t prove that Bitcoin will hit any specific number, but it does undermine the idea that the current cycle is already exhausted. From this perspective, the pullback looks more like a macro reset than a terminal blow-off.
If this pattern holds, there may still be “much more room to run” before this Bitcoin cycle truly tops out.