Is Bitcoin losing ground where it was supposed to triumph? Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest and a leading figure in crypto investment, has just lowered her most ambitious target for BTC. The reason is the rise of stablecoins in emerging economies, where they are establishing themselves as a new store of value. This represents a significant strategic adjustment that questions the real role Bitcoin will play against these dollar-backed alternatives.
In brief
- •Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, lowers her optimistic Bitcoin forecast from $1.5 million to $1.2 million by 2030.
- •This revision is explained by the unexpected rise of stablecoins in emerging economies.
- •Wood believes stablecoins are fulfilling a role Bitcoin was supposed to occupy: that of a store of value.
- •Despite this correction, she continues to view Bitcoin as a global monetary system comparable to gold.
Cathie Wood Revises Her Bullish Bitcoin Scenario Amid the Rise of Stablecoins
In an interview with CNBC on November 7, Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, announced a significant revision of her most ambitious bullish scenario for Bitcoin.
Her new projection is $1.2 million by 2030, down from $1.5 million previously. This $300,000 adjustment is explained by a development she considers structural: "stablecoins are taking part of the role we initially thought reserved for Bitcoin," she explained, referring to their massive adoption in emerging economies, notably as a store of value.
Wood believes stablecoins are gaining unexpected ground in geopolitical contexts where Bitcoin might have prevailed. She remains convinced of BTC’s fundamental value, calling it a "global monetary system" with characteristics close to gold, but admits some functions once thought exclusive to Bitcoin are now shared. To better understand the reasons for this revision, here are the key points raised by the investor:
- •A revised bullish scenario: ARK Invest lowers its long-term target for BTC from $1.5 million to $1.2 million by 2030.
- •The main identified cause: the rapid rise of stablecoins, especially in emerging markets.
- •A clear distinction: for Wood, BTC remains a fundamentally different asset, a form of "digital gold," while stablecoins are "simply fiat money tokenized on a blockchain."
This statement marks a significant shift in tone, while maintaining an overall positive view on Bitcoin. It especially highlights a strategic realignment. Bitcoin retains its systemic role worldwide, but expectations regarding its adoption in certain uses, notably in stressed economies, are now moderated in favor of stablecoins.
The Rise of Stablecoins Reshuffles the Cards in Emerging Markets
The revision of Cathie Wood’s scenario is based on economic trends observed across several world regions, especially in Latin America. The massive use of stablecoins in economies facing hyperinflation, capital controls, or international sanctions is no longer marginal.
It is now a structural phenomenon. Venezuela’s case is emblematic. According to IMF data, annual inflation of the bolívar is 269% this year, pushing people to turn to more stable assets to preserve their purchasing power. In this context, dollar-backed stablecoins such as Tether’s USDT have established themselves as financial survival tools.
Beyond domestic use, their role now extends to state applications. In 2024, several reports revealed that the Venezuelan government used stablecoins to circumvent U.S. sanctions and continue its international oil exports.
This reality supports Standard Chartered’s analysis that stablecoins could siphon up to $1,000 billion from traditional banking systems in emerging countries by 2028. The rise of stablecoins, facilitated by their technological accessibility and anchoring in a strong currency, therefore redraws monetary balances where national currencies are in crisis.
The implicit competition between Bitcoin and stablecoins on the fundamental uses of money — store of value, medium of exchange, unit of account — but also regulators’ ability to oversee a phenomenon partly beyond their jurisdiction. While Cathie Wood continues to believe in Bitcoin’s transformative potential, her updated analysis reflects strategic clarity. The future will be pluralistic, shared among different crypto solutions meeting specific needs. The growth of stablecoins, far from a mere epiphenomenon, might well represent a lasting rebalancing in the global digital economy.