Bitcoin’s underlying market structure has continued to strengthen despite declining trading volumes, analysts say.
Bitcoin’s market structure is strengthening even as trading volumes dip, with long-term holders accumulating, exchange supply tightening, and price action stabilizing into a narrow range. Analysts highlight a key divergence: the Nasdaq has rebounded strongly while Bitcoin lags, suggesting mispricing, renewed risk-on appetite, and a break from strict four-year cycle predictions. On-chain data shows a burst of institutional buying, signaling proactive positioning by whales and market makers.
Market Dynamics and Holder Behavior
Long-term holders have maintained their positions while more Bitcoin flows into cold storage and supply on exchanges tightens. The shift represents a transition from volatile, sentiment-driven price swings to more stable structural support, according to industry analysis.
Correlation with Nasdaq and Market Divergence
CryptoMichNL, chief investment officer and founder of MNFund and MNCapital, stated on X that Bitcoin shares a strong correlation with the Nasdaq. While the Nasdaq has shown steady resilience, Bitcoin has lagged behind, creating what the analyst described as mispricing and market divergence.
This divergence suggests that the path to major upside targets remains open and calls into question the validity of the four-year cycle thesis.
Institutional Activity and Strategic Positioning
Bitcoin recently underwent a sharp correction, during which the market saw a pronounced shift between high-volatility “Beta” assets and more stable “Quality” assets, according to LVisserLabs. While Bitcoin stalled after the sell-off, Beta stocks rebounded strongly, signaling a return of risk-on appetite in broader markets.
On-chain data analyzed by investor Ucan showed a surge of institutional demand in a narrow window, with major exchanges, market makers, and an unidentified whale executing large purchases just hours before the Federal Reserve’s employment report.
The timing suggests institutions were positioning ahead of potentially supportive data, while retail traders largely reacted to market movements.
Analysts say this behavior indicates a strategic, preparatory move rather than purely momentum-driven trading, highlighting the growing influence of institutional activity on Bitcoin’s price dynamics.