Bitcoin May Never Fall Below $100K Again

A historic turning point could unfold in just a few days. Geoffrey Kendrick, crypto head at Standard Chartered, suggests that one favorable week would suffice for bitcoin to never fall below 100,000 dollars again. In a note released this Monday, October 27, he states that if current macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics hold, the six-figure threshold could become a new durable floor for the market. This projection, if confirmed, would redefine the benchmarks of the entire industry.

Towards a Sino-American Truce with Immediate Effects on Markets?

Contrary to his estimate of a break below $100,000, in his latest analysis note, Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of crypto research at Standard Chartered, states that "market fear has turned into hope" thanks to a series of positive geopolitical signals.

A diplomatic thaw between Washington and Beijing could redefine short-term perspectives in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. According to Kendrick, this dynamic could sustainably support bitcoin if confirmed in the coming days.

Here are the key elements of this easing and their implications:

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  A suspension of Chinese restrictive measures: China could postpone its export controls on rare earths by one year, a major gesture in trade negotiations;
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  Commitment on agricultural imports: Beijing plans to massively purchase American soybeans for several years, in exchange for the United States abandoning the threat of 100% tariffs;
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  A decisive upcoming summit: the details of the agreement are expected to be finalized during a crucial meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, scheduled this Thursday in South Korea;
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  Immediate repercussions on risky assets: this easing led to a rebound in the bitcoin/gold ratio, which rose above pre-crash levels of October 10;
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  A closely followed psychological indicator: Kendrick highlights that "if this ratio rises above 30 again, it will mark the end of the market fear phase."

These signals converge towards an optimistic short-term market outlook. The improvement in the global geopolitical climate could thus, according to Standard Chartered, open a new bullish phase for bitcoin, no longer merely correlated with supply, but largely driven by the return of risk appetite worldwide.

Market Signals as Catalysts of a New Paradigm

The picture painted by Geoffrey Kendrick goes beyond the geopolitical environment. It also, and perhaps especially, relies on purely structural elements linked to market dynamics. The Standard Chartered head highlights a decisive indicator: capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

He notes that more than two billion dollars left gold-backed ETFs between Wednesday and Friday last week. "It would be a strong signal of renewed confidence if even half of these funds redirected toward Bitcoin ETFs between Monday and Wednesday," he writes.

A potential new historic high for bitcoin, which according to Kendrick would represent a symbolic and fundamental shift. "If an ATH occurs this week, it would mark the death of the halving cycle as the driver of the crypto queen’s prices," he asserts.

In his view, the influence of institutional flows through ETFs now outweighs the traditional supply adjustment mechanisms. The relevance of the cyclical model based on reduced rewards for miners fades in favor of an institutional adoption logic.

If these elements were to be confirmed in the coming days, amidst tech giant earnings releases, the FOMC meeting, and diplomatic easing, implications would be major. Bitcoin would no longer be merely a speculative or cyclical asset, but a mature investment vehicle, anchored in fund strategies. The $100,000 threshold, often seen as a peak, could then become a floor.