As Bitcoin passes through a new turbulence zone, Michael Saylor finds himself at the heart of a decisive showdown with MSCI. Threat of exclusion from indices, pressure from institutional investors, and massive exposure to the king asset: his bet on Bitcoin is more tested than ever.
In Brief
- •Michael Saylor faces a possible exclusion of Strategy from MSCI indices due to high volatility related to its massive Bitcoin exposure.
- •The price drop, anticipated losses, and tensions with JP Morgan have weakened the stock while reviving criticism of a business model fully tied to an ultra-volatile asset.
- •Despite this, Saylor maintains his bet, continues accumulating Bitcoin, and bets on the idea that the asset remains undervalued, with some estimating it capable of reaching $270,000 in the long term.
A Bitcoin Giant Facing an Institutional Storm
Michael Saylor, an iconic figure of Bitcoin and chairman of Strategy, is today at the heart of a crucial negotiation with MSCI, the giant of global stock indices. At stake: the very future of the company in the MSCI USA and MSCI World indices, of which it is currently part.
The threat of exclusion weighs heavily due to a balance sheet considered too volatile, a direct consequence of its massive Bitcoin exposure. For MSCI, this volatility compromises the expected stability of companies present in its indices, while for Saylor, it is a true existential battle.
The stakes go far beyond Strategy’s borders. An exit from the index could trigger capital outflows estimated at $2.8 billion, according to JP Morgan. And if other index providers follow, the overall impact could rise to $8.8 billion. But Saylor, true to his provocative style, vigorously contests these figures, calling the American bank’s estimates “approximate” and potentially “biased.”
The Double Face of Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy
Since 2020, Strategy has established itself as the first listed company to convert its war chest into Bitcoin. A bold maneuver, praised initially, but now becoming a double-edged sword. When Bitcoin rises, MSTR stock acts like a speculative lever, multiplying gains. But when the market turns, the fall is brutal. The recent 10% drop in Bitcoin was enough to trigger a new wave of sales, plunging the stock into a -60% spiral since July.
Criticism is abundant. Some investors see in JP Morgan’s recent actions, notably the tightening of margins on MSTR-backed loans, a coordinated attack against Saylor’s company. Others see it as the materialization of a structural risk: that of a company closely tied to an ultra-volatile asset.
Saylor, however, remains unfazed. “If Bitcoin drops 30% or 40%, our stock will do worse, it’s mathematical,” he admitted with almost stoic lucidity. But behind this apparent fatalism, the billionaire is playing a chess game with institutions, betting on the resilience of the king cryptocurrency.
Between Anticipated Losses and Unshakable Faith
The assessment is brutal: Strategy anticipates up to $5.5 billion in losses in 2025 if Bitcoin stays below $100,000. Facing this scenario, the company sold part of its assets to build a $1.44 billion cash reserve, intended to honor its dividends and debt. A move seen as defensive by analysts, but presented by Saylor as a short-term survival strategy.
Despite the storm, the man does not give up. Far from reducing his exposure, he repurchased 130 additional Bitcoin (BTC), raising Strategy’s war chest to 650,000 BTC, valued at about $59 billion. An almost symbolic gesture, but one that sends a clear message: Saylor remains convinced that Bitcoin has not yet said its last word.
The recent Bitcoin surge, up 6.5% over 24 hours to $92,998, offers a slight respite to Saylor and Strategy, while the pressure from MSCI and institutional markets remains palpable. Yet behind this temporary upswing, a question continues to grow: Is Bitcoin undervalued today, while some estimate that its real value could approach $270,000? If such a perspective were to materialize, it would strengthen Strategy’s bold strategy while highlighting the growing gap between Bitcoin supporters’ vision and the still rigid caution of major financial institutions like MSCI.