Key Insights
- •150,000 BTC options are set to expire on Friday with a $101,000 max pain point and a 0.61 put/call ratio.
- •An increase in Bitcoin exchange large deposits could place more pressure on recent support levels.
- •Arthur Hayes suggests Bitcoin has found a local bottom near $80,000.
The final Friday of the month is approaching, marking the expiration of a significant number of Bitcoin options. This event prompts questions about its potential impact on the market and BTC price movements.
Bitcoin has experienced reduced selling pressure this week compared to previous periods, leading to investor curiosity about whether this signals the beginning of a new accumulation phase.
Bitcoin options liquidations could serve as a catalyst for increased trading volumes, particularly as December begins. Approximately 150,000 Bitcoin options, valued at around $13 billion, are scheduled to expire by the week's end.
While options may not have a direct influence on Bitcoin, secondary effects could still manifest. The expiration and subsequent liquidation processes may shape investor responses in terms of demand and supply dynamics.
Bitcoin News: Whales May Contribute to Sell Pressure
In addition to the substantial options expiries this week, activity from large holders, often referred to as whales, could continue to be a prominent topic in Bitcoin news. Data from large order books still indicates weak demand, a trend observed among whales over the past few weeks.
On-chain data suggests that large holders, or whales, may be actively suppressing the BTC price. According to CryptoQuant, exchanges have continued to receive significant Bitcoin deposits this week.
Furthermore, Bitcoin deposits on exchanges originating from large holders are approaching levels last seen towards the end of October. This trend could signal their intention to sell more coins.
Incoming demand from buyers looking to capitalize on dips might serve as exit liquidity for these large holders. This scenario could also hinder BTC's recovery attempts, as has been observed in recent days.
The substantial inflows into exchanges suggest that Bitcoin may not yet be poised for a strong recovery. The question remains whether this indicates that the cryptocurrency will continue its downward trend below recent lows.
Bitcoin Already Bottomed at $80,000?
The influx of Bitcoin into exchanges from large holder accounts implies that the market may not be entirely free from bearish sentiment. However, some analysts believe that the selling pressure could find support near the $80,000 mark.
Among these analysts is BitMex founder Arthur Hayes, who posits that the BTC price may have already reached a local bottom around $80,000 during the recent market downturn. His prediction is largely informed by anticipated economic events, such as the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening program.
Additionally, US banks have increased their lending activities in November. The combination of these developments points towards improving liquidity conditions, which could foster a risk-on sentiment in December.
The evolving liquidity situation could benefit assets like stocks in the upcoming days. Moreover, Bitcoin has continued to exhibit signs of recovery this week, despite recent outflows.
The leading cryptocurrency has reclaimed the $90,000 price level within the last 24 hours, even with outflows from whales. This indicates an acceleration of accumulation at recent lows, which has supported a recovery of over 10% from last week's lows.
While the improving sentiment may have contributed to BTC price performance this week, a high degree of uncertainty persists. In other words, investors remain hesitant about the sustainability of this recovery. Furthermore, the upcoming Bitcoin options expiry could potentially disrupt the momentum of the market recovery.