Key Insights
- •New Bitcoin news research suggests Bitcoin is behaving almost exactly like it did during the 2022 bear market.
- •November also ranks in the bottom 10% of daily Bitcoin price moves since 2015.
- •Despite this, a shift in market sentiment could still trigger a classic “Santa rally” across risk assets before the year ends.
Bitcoin Tracks 2022 Bear Market with 98% Correlation
New Bitcoin news research suggests Bitcoin is behaving almost exactly like it did during the 2022 bear market. This year’s price moves are closely mirroring the patterns seen back then, with the monthly correlation reaching 98%.
The latest Bitcoin news report features economist Timothy Peterson stating that Bitcoin in 2025 is eerily replaying the patterns of 2022. He warns that the market is showing a strikingly similar downturn to last year’s bear phase. Bitcoin has dropped 36% from its all-time highs, disappointing bulls who expected the biggest gains of the cycle were still ahead. As December begins, BTC/USD shows little sign of a turnaround. Peterson’s data suggests the price is even mimicking the last bear-market bottom.
“2H2025 Bitcoin is the same as 2H2022 Bitcoin,” he told followers on X Saturday. On daily charts, the correlation is 80%, while monthly data hits a nearly perfect 98%. A chart accompanying his analysis suggests that, if history repeats itself, Bitcoin may not see a true rebound until well into the first quarter of 2026.
November Hits BTC Hard, Echoing Past Lows
According to the economist, November ranks in the bottom 10% of daily Bitcoin price moves since 2015. “It feels bad because it is bad,” Timothy Peterson wrote last week in his analysis of the month’s performance. He pointed out that the declines this November are among the steepest the market has seen in more than a decade.
Crypto ETFs Signal Institutional Interest Returning
Despite this, a shift in market sentiment could still trigger a classic “Santa rally” across risk assets before the year ends. Crypto fell sharply over the past month, far more than stocks, but signs of a rebound are starting to appear. Reporting this weekend, The Kobeissi Letter cited Bloomberg and JPMorgan data showing massive inflows into U.S. equities. Equity funds have attracted $900 billion since November 2024, with $450 billion coming in just over the last five months. By comparison, all other asset classes combined have seen only about $100 billion in new capital.
Meanwhile, the latest Bitcoin news data on U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs hint towards a return of institutional interest, suggesting the crypto markets could be stabilizing as the year comes to a close. According to top analyst and trader Titan of Crypto, Bitcoin price action once again approached a familiar technical setup, and the monthly Bollinger Bands are at the center of it.
The chart highlights how BTC has historically reacted when price tests the midline of the monthly Bollinger Bands—a level that often acts as a strong momentum trigger, especially during transitional market phases. In the previous cycle, this same interaction led to a sharp bullish reaction. Today, the chart shows a similar structure forming. Bitcoin is hovering near the midline again, and the bands are tightening—often an early sign of increased volatility ahead.
If history rhymes, a comparable 45% upside move from current levels would place BTC in the region of $118,000. Of course, past patterns don’t guarantee future performance. However, the consistency of Bitcoin’s reactions to the monthly Bollinger midline makes this setup one to watch. As long as price holds above that band and momentum remains stable, Bitcoin news could be preparing to witness another strong multi-month advance.