The Bitcoin power law, which suggests a "fair value" of $142,000 for BTC, indicates that the cryptocurrency's price is preparing for a significant upward movement, according to author and analyst Adam Livingston.
Livingston projects Bitcoin's upper band price to reach approximately $512,000 by December 31, 2025. The fair-value price is estimated at around $142,000, with the lower end of the range projected just above $50,000.
He noted that Bitcoin has been unusually "hugging" the fair value line since March 2024, a behavior that suggests an imminent upward explosion. Livingston stated:
“Every previous time BTC did this, one of two things happened: It exploded upward because it had been underpriced relative to its long-term power law, or it briefly dipped into the lower band and then ripped vertically, harder than before.”
This bullish price prediction emerges amidst lowered BTC forecasts from other analysts and a general decline in crypto prices, which has fueled investor concerns about the potential onset of a new bear market.
Market Analysts and Crypto Industry Executives Lower BTC Price Forecasts
Several investment firms have revised their Bitcoin price predictions downward following a significant market downturn in October, which saw the price of BTC fall below the critical psychological level of $100,000.
Galaxy Digital, for instance, reduced its end-of-year 2025 forecast for Bitcoin from $180,000 to $120,000. This adjustment was attributed to the October market crash, decreased volatility resulting from market maturation, and a rotation of investor capital towards competing narratives such as Artificial Intelligence.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, commented, "If bitcoin can maintain the $100,000 level, we believe the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, though the pace of future gains may be slower."
Thorn also stated that the crypto market crash in October "materially damaged" the short-term bullish price trend, although he expressed continued optimism regarding Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory.
Cathie Wood, founder of investment firm Ark Invest, also lowered her long-term BTC price forecast by $300,000. She cited stablecoins eroding Bitcoin's market share by fulfilling the demand for a store-of-value asset in emerging economies as a contributing factor.