Bitcoin (BTC) has entered the new month facing a statistical headwind it has historically struggled to overcome: every time November has ended in the red, BTC has found it difficult to turn bullish in December. However, this year's market structure appears significantly different, with momentum, liquidity rotation, and cycle deviations pushing against what has been a historically bearish seasonal setup for December.
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin's historically bearish December period could be altered by reduced leverage and the price reclaiming a key technical level, suggesting a more stable market setup.
- •Macroeconomic liquidity and M2 velocity are diverging from Bitcoin's buying activity, a trend typically observed in the middle stages of a bull market.
- •Bitcoin's cycle structure has evolved, with spot ETF inflows and global liquidity dynamics influencing traditional halving-based cycles.
Seasonality Breakers and Cycle Deviation for BTC
Bitcoin's performance in the fourth quarter has long been characterized by strong seasonality, with a weak December performance frequently following a negative November. Yet, the market structure in 2025 has diverged sharply from past cycles.
BTC's price has moved back above its monthly rolling volume-weighted average price (rVWAP) levels, indicating controlled distribution and adoption of the high-timeframe trend. A substantial decrease in open interest, from $94 billion down to $60 billion, has reset the market without hindering spot inflows, thereby creating a cleaner foundation for continuation.
From a technical perspective, significant liquidity clusters that were previously located at downside liquidations in November, totaling approximately $1 billion near $80,000, have now migrated to upside inefficient clusters. Currently, cumulative short positions amounting to $3 billion would be liquidated at $96,000, and over $7 billion would be liquidated once BTC reaches $100,000.
These factors suggest that the potential for Bitcoin's performance in December might be mispriced relative to its historical probability curve.
Despite the current momentum, it can be deceptive. Cointelegraph previously noted that the taker buy/sell ratio, hovering around 1.17, indicated urgency rather than depth, and this often appears when positioning becomes crowded. Anonymous market analyst EndGame Macro stated that this reflected aggressive buying but not necessarily sustainable accumulation.
Concurrently, the velocity of M2 has flattened, signaling a potential loss of momentum in the broader economy even as risk assets continue to rise. This creates a market scenario typical of late-cycle phases, where market sentiment becomes more pronounced while the underlying economy shows signs of slowing down.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin's attempt to achieve its first-ever green December following a negative November serves as a test of whether current positioning can outweigh broader market fundamentals.
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A Change Beyond the Traditional Halving Clock
Over recent months, analysts have argued that the traditional four-year cycle for Bitcoin does not fully explain BTC's current market structure. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that while the four-year cycle has not disappeared, it no longer aligns cleanly with time-based expectations.
The introduction of spot BTC ETF inflows has created a consistent, structural bid, accelerating price discovery and raising Bitcoin's effective floor compared to earlier cycles.
Van de Poppe suggested that this cycle resembles an extended liquidity phase, similar to mid-2016 or late 2019, periods when risk assets strengthened despite uneven macroeconomic data.
Supporting indicators, such as the correlation between CNY/USD and ETH/BTC, typically increase early in expansionary windows, not near market cycle peaks.
Meanwhile, business-cycle indicators, including the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), are showing gradual improvement, along with gold's relative strength. This suggests that risk appetite is rebuilding from cyclical lows rather than weakening. Van de Poppe further explained:
“Now, if we combine the business cycle strength/weakness with Bitcoin cycles, then again, the correlation is quite clear. This stage is comparable to Q1/2 2016, Q4 2019. We're nowhere near a top on Bitcoin, and we're still in the final easy cycle of crypto with exorbitant returns.”
In this context, Bitcoin's December setup relies less on replicating historical seasonality and more on whether new structural forces, such as spot ETF inflows, liquidity rotation, and shifting macroeconomic correlations, will outweigh the influence of older halving-driven cycles.
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