Prominent market analyst Ali Martinez has again highlighted the possibility of the Bitcoin price capitulating from the current levels despite the recent recovery. He noted that the short-term rebound does not invalidate Bitcoin’s bearish structure on the higher timeframe. The market analyst insisted that this could be a brief rebound before a 56% capsize to $42,000.
Bearish Structure Remains
Bitcoin bounced to $97,900 earlier in the week, reaching a level last seen on December 4, 2025. The rally spread renewed bullishness around the crypto space, but has not changed Martinez’s stance. In a tweet, he explained that short-term rebounds before a bearish continuation are common for Bitcoin, especially when it falls below the 50-week simple moving average. For context, Bitcoin lost the 50W SMA in early 2022 but quickly rebounded to retest the resistance. It again didn’t hold the trendline, continuing its bearish trend to the bear market lows of $15,000. Martinez sees this repeating even as Bitcoin holds critical levels. His earlier analysis identified the 50W MA at around $103,000. This implies that the coin might trend higher, but remains bearish overall in higher timeframes.
Bitcoin: Both Bearish and Bullish
Martinez went further to explain that analysts can be both bearish and bullish. Because analyses are not predictions, they depend on the timeframe and the specifics of what the chart is saying at that time. Again, he emphasized that an asset can be both bearish and bullish at the same time. In Bitcoin’s case, it is bullish within its macro-structure, yet remains bearish on higher timeframes. As a result, he sees BTC ultimately targeting the $42,000 region, representing a 56% drop from the current market price. Notably, this builds on his conviction that the crypto is still maintaining its four-year cycle and that Bitcoin has peaked at its October 2025 high of $126,200. It also closely aligns with Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone’s prediction that Bitcoin would drop to $50,000.
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