Bitcoin has been consolidating within a well-defined range, bounded by its 100 and 200-day moving averages. The asset has staged a mild recovery toward the upper boundary, signaling early signs of renewed strength. While extended consolidation in this region remains likely, a valid breakout could trigger a sustained directional move.
Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, BTC remains confined within a crucial range, with the 200-day MA near $109K providing solid support and the 100-day MA around $115K acting as immediate resistance. The recent rebound from the $108K demand zone has pushed the price back toward the upper boundary of this structure.
The recovery candles show a constructive tone, but the $115K–$116K region, which overlaps with an institutional supply zone (DP), represents the first key test for bullish continuation. A decisive close above this level could open the path for a retest of the $120K–$122K liquidity pocket, followed by a potential revisit of the $126K all-time high.
Conversely, rejection from the 100-day MA would likely prompt a pullback toward the $108K accumulation zone, which continues to serve as a high-liquidity demand base and the foundation of recent rebounds.
The 4-hour structure highlights Bitcoin trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, following a sharp recovery from the $102K–$104K institutional demand zone. This pattern reflects a period of volatility compression, typically preceding a strong breakout.
Currently, the asset is attempting to break above the upper trendline, which would confirm a bullish momentum shift and target the $120K–$122K liquidity zone. However, failure to sustain above resistance and the formation of another lower high could invite renewed downside toward the $108K support for a potential base retest.
Momentum remains constructive but fragile, suggesting the market is entering a critical decision phase where volatility expansion is imminent.
On-chain Analysis
The Realized Price of mid-term holders (3–6 month cohort) continues to act as a key market pivot, historically serving as both support and resistance during major turning points. This metric reflects the average acquisition cost of coins held by this group, offering valuable insight into prevailing sentiment.
Bitcoin’s rebound from $102K has lifted price action just above the $109K Realized Price, putting mid-term holders back into slight profit. This development typically reduces short-term selling pressure and signals improving conviction among market participants.
The $114K region now emerges as a decisive threshold. A confirmed breakout and hold above this level would reinforce confidence among these holders, potentially igniting a new bullish leg toward fresh all-time highs. Conversely, failure to hold above it could tilt sentiment back toward caution, exposing Bitcoin to deeper corrective moves within its current range.
