At press time, Bitcoin trades around $107,600, down nearly 0.7% in the past 24 hours and about 4.8% over the past week, according to TradingView data.
While the flagship digital asset has struggled to regain momentum after its brief surge above $112,000, on-chain metrics and comparative market models hint at a potential turning point that could either confirm support or signal a sharper retracement.
Gold Correlation Sparks Bullish Hopes
One of the most discussed narratives this week comes from Crypto Rover, who suggested that Bitcoin could soon “follow gold” in a renewed uptrend. The trader shared a chart comparing Bitcoin’s price with gold’s performance – shifted by a 60-day lag – showing a striking similarity between the two. Gold’s recent breakout to new highs has fueled speculation that Bitcoin might mirror the move if the correlation holds.
BITCOIN TO FOLLOW GOLD! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/FgVX7ncdOu
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) October 22, 2025
Historically, gold and Bitcoin have often shown periods of synchronized performance, especially during times of monetary uncertainty and rising inflation expectations. Many market watchers believe that as gold benefits from safe-haven demand, Bitcoin – often dubbed “digital gold” – could experience a delayed but powerful reaction.
However, others argue that macroeconomic conditions may complicate the outlook. With uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade policies and a cautious Federal Reserve stance, risk assets like Bitcoin could remain under pressure in the short term, despite the long-term bullish case.
Key Resistance at $119,750
According to Ali, a popular on-chain analyst known for data-driven Bitcoin forecasts, the next critical resistance lies around $119,750. His latest chart, based on Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, shows that failing to reclaim this level could trigger a potential decline toward $97,130 or even $74,500.
$119,750 is a key resistance level for Bitcoin $BTC. Failing to reclaim it could trigger a move down to $97,130 or even $74,500. pic.twitter.com/f4qODpvtsX
— Ali (@ali_charts) October 22, 2025
The model tracks how far Bitcoin’s current price deviates from its realized value – an indicator of whether the market is overheated or undervalued. At current levels, Ali suggests that Bitcoin is approaching a zone where further downside is possible if momentum weakens.
Still, he also notes that similar retracements in past cycles have eventually paved the way for strong recoveries, implying that long-term holders might see such dips as accumulation opportunities.
Loss Margins Narrow as Traders Hold On
In a separate analysis, Ali pointed out that Bitcoin tends to rebound when traders’ realized loss margin falls below -12%. The metric, which measures unrealized losses among short-term holders, currently sits near -5%, suggesting the market is not yet in deep capitulation territory.
“Over the last two years, Bitcoin has tended to rebound when traders’ loss margin drops below -12%,” Ali noted, indicating that the worst may not be over yet but that market pressure could be easing.
Over the last two years, Bitcoin $BTC has tended to rebound when traders’ loss margin drops below -12%. It’s currently at -5%. pic.twitter.com/zHFHV5UYpF
— Ali (@ali_charts) October 22, 2025
If the pattern continues, a short-term correction might be needed to flush out weak hands before a more sustainable rally can form.
On-Chain Data Shows Bullish Undercurrent
Another voice adding to the cautiously optimistic tone is Joao Wedson, who shared data from Alphractal showing the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta indicator turning red – a signal that has historically marked cycle bottoms. According to Wedson, every time this metric flips red during the current bull cycle, it has coincided with the market’s lowest point before the next leg up.
“If history repeats, the bottom has already happened,” he wrote, hinting that Bitcoin could soon stabilize and prepare for another upward phase.
When the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta turns red, it means the bottom has already happened.
At least, that’s how it’s been throughout the current bull cycle.
I hope you’re seeing this.
Chart: @Alphractalpic.twitter.com/drRftlCiEe
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) October 22, 2025
This sentiment aligns with a broader on-chain consensus that Bitcoin’s macro structure remains intact, even if short-term volatility persists.
Expert Highlights Broader Ecosystem Strength
Meanwhile, Michaël van de Poppe emphasized that the Bitcoin ecosystem remains one of the largest markets for long-term investment, despite recent volatility. He described the recent correction as an opportunity rather than a threat, saying the pullback has reset valuations across the sector.
Van de Poppe also mentioned PTB, a smaller token within the Bitcoin ecosystem, noting that it sits at a “major support zone” and could rebound strongly if it breaks above $0.04. The comment reflects a broader trend where traders are looking for high-beta plays tied to Bitcoin’s network and surrounding infrastructure, potentially leading to renewed interest in altcoins once Bitcoin stabilizes.
The #Bitcoin ecosystem is a big market to invest in.
Yes, token prices have fallen during the crash, but again, it provides tremendous opportunities.$PTB is on a big support level, and they're looking to fire up the news feed again with big updates the coming period.
If it… pic.twitter.com/uG9ZMcI7ul
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 22, 2025
Market Remains Divided
Despite the mixed views, Bitcoin’s technical landscape appears to be at a crossroads. The daily chart shows steady lower highs since the early October peak, with the $105,000 zone emerging as a short-term support. A break below that could open the door to $97,000, while reclaiming $112,000 would reestablish bullish momentum toward the $120,000 resistance zone identified by analysts.
At the same time, the broader macro backdrop remains supportive of long-term growth. Institutional activity in Bitcoin ETFs has persisted, and global interest in digital assets continues to expand amid tightening monetary policies and growing fiscal deficits.
Outlook: Volatility to Continue Before the Next Breakout
In the near term, traders should expect volatility to remain elevated as Bitcoin consolidates between its key support and resistance levels. The next major move could be decisive for determining whether BTC resumes its long-term bullish trend or enters an extended correction phase.
While some indicators point to weakness, others hint at an approaching rebound – mirroring similar mid-cycle consolidations seen in previous bull markets. If Bitcoin does indeed follow gold’s trajectory, as some suggest, a powerful upside leg may still be on the horizon.
For now, Bitcoin’s resilience above $107,000 keeps the long-term outlook intact – but all eyes remain on whether it can break back above $112,000 and challenge the $119,750 ceiling that could unlock the next phase of its rally.