Key Points
- •Bitcoin starts 2026 with persisting easy monetary conditions, although the shorter-term price momentum has eased.
- •On-chain indicators show that the market has moved towards a state of neutral valuation, where support and resistance levels are evident.
- •According to Tiger Research, the price target for Bitcoin in 2026 is fixed at $185,500, based on a macro and fundamental valuation model.
Entering 2026, the world of Bitcoin is not operating in a reflexive rally environment anymore but is seeing price action driven by macro forces, institutional patterns, and regulatory development.
Bitcoin is now seen ranging in the mid-$90,000 levels, pulling back somewhat from recent 2025 highs. Although this has dampened some speculative fervor, the macro environment has stayed supportive.
The rate cuts brought about by the Fed at the end of 2025 have created a scenario where there are expected easing cycles for the policy rate over the course of 2026 but not aggressive cycles. Such a scenario is more supportive of scarce assets rather than immediate price actions driven by liquidity.
ETF Flows Cool as Corporate Buyers Stay Active
One characteristic of the Bitcoin Price Outlook 2026 is the disparity between the flow of ETFs and the accumulation trends among corporations.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs registered significant outflows of funds at the end of 2025, which indicates that asset managers and trading participants are more prudent about their positioning. These outflows are essentially due to rebalancing and not an exit, but they have negatively impacted momentum.
However, a number of public companies have continued to accumulate their Bitcoin holdings. The acquisition by corporate entities has been more stable than in the past, indicating a long-term commitment to buying by strategic investors.
Regulation Emerges as a Structural Catalyst
Regulatory developments are increasingly relevant to the Bitcoin Price Outlook 2026, particularly in the United States. Proposed regulations in the United States regarding the delineation of oversight powers could make it easier for traditional financial institutions to participate.
There are certainly simplified pathways in countries like Japan and Singapore, but these are typically only available for licensed institutions and come with strict regulations.
While regulatory progress rarely produces immediate price reactions, its impact tends to unfold over time by improving market depth, liquidity, and institutional confidence. In that sense, it influences the Bitcoin Price Outlook 2026 more through structure than short-term sentiment.
On-Chain Metrics Point to Fair Value Conditions
On-chain data supports the view that Bitcoin is no longer trading in an overheated phase. According to Tiger Research:
- •$84,000 has formed a clear support level following the late-2025 correction.
- •$98,000 represents the average cost basis of short-term holders and acts as psychological resistance.
- •MVRV-Z (1.25), NUPL (0.39), and aSOPR (~1.00) have all returned to equilibrium levels, supporting a balanced Bitcoin price outlook rather than one driven by euphoria or fear.
These indicators suggest the market is transitioning from fear-driven price discovery toward consolidation and reassessment. Historically, such conditions have been associated with more sustainable trends within the broader Bitcoin Price Outlook 2026.
Bitcoin Price Outlook 2026: Why Tiger Research Sees $185,500
Tiger Research’s TVM valuation model places Bitcoin’s 2026 base price at $145,000, supported by stable network fundamentals and a positive macro backdrop.
The framework applies a 0% fundamental adjustment, reflecting steady on-chain activity, alongside a +25% macro adjustment driven by ongoing rate cuts and expanding global liquidity. Compared with the previous quarter, the macro weighting is lower but remains supportive.
Based on these inputs, Tiger Research sets a Bitcoin Price Outlook 2026 target of $185,500, representing nearly 100% upside from early-2026 levels.
The firm notes that the revised target is more conservative than earlier estimates, reflecting slower institutional inflows and elevated geopolitical risks rather than a shift to a bearish long-term outlook.