Key Insights
- •As per Bitcoin (BTC USD) price prediction by Tom Lee, it can still break $100K by year-end despite the October crash.
- •Lee warns the S&P 500 may drop 20% in 2026 due to policy risks.
- •His calls are 70% directionally accurate, but timing is correct only about 50% of the time.
Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s well-known strategist, gave a bold outlook on CNBC Closing Bell recently. He sees hope for the crypto market even after October’s crash.
His latest Bitcoin (BTC USD) price prediction is clear: Bitcoin can still break above $100,000 before December 31, 2025.
At the same time, he warned of a possible 20% drop in the S&P 500 during 2026.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bottom Is In, $100K+ Still Coming
Tom Lee said the October 10–11 crash was the worst event in Bitcoin’s 15-year history. Nearly two million leveraged accounts were wiped out.
About one-third of crypto market makers went bankrupt. He called it an “Armageddon-style leverage flush-out.”
Yet he sees this as a reset. “We are near the crypto market bottom,” Lee explained. His Bitcoin (BTC USD) price prediction remains bullish.
He believes Bitcoin can still break $100,000 by year-end. He added that the best trading days are ahead.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2026: AI Leads, Crypto Follows
Looking into 2026, Tom Lee expects AI stocks to lead. The crypto market will play catch-up. He lowered his S&P 500 year-end 2025 target to around 7,000.
He warned of a possible 20% policy-driven correction next year. Still, he believes rebounds will be quick after any shock.
For Bitcoin, he stays positive in the medium term. Institutional adoption remains strong. Halving cycles are intact. These factors support long-term growth.
Tom Lee Track Record: Hits, Misses, and Lessons
Tom Lee has a strong long-term record. But his timing is often wrong. He correctly called the 2023 and 2024 stock rallies when many feared a recession.
His Bitcoin (BTC USD) price prediction of $100,000 was first made in 2018. It finally arrived in 2024, six years late.
In 2021, he predicted $100,000 by year-end. Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 instead. In 2025, he first aimed for $200K–$250K. After the October crash, he adjusted lower.
Overall, his directional calls on the crypto market are right more than 70% of the time. But exact prices and dates are correct only about 50% of the time.
As of November 30, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at $91,480. The S&P 500 sits at 6,847. Tom Lee’s Bitcoin price prediction offers hope for crypto bulls.
He believes the worst of the leverage wipe-out is over. A fast move above $100,000 is still possible before 2026 begins.
At the same time, he urges caution on stocks. Policy risks could trigger sharp drops in 2026.
Investors watching the crypto market and the ongoing Bitcoin price prediction debates will keep a close eye on Tom Lee’s next updates.