Bitcoin Price Prediction: JPMorgan Sees BTC Soaring to $170,000 Within a Year

Key Market Insights

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  JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin could reach $170,000 within a year as leverage unwinds.
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  Analyst Michaël van de Poppe indicates BTC needs to reclaim $106K to restore bullish sentiment.
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  Nasdaq's outperformance highlights a growing divergence with Bitcoin's performance.

JPMorgan's Bullish Outlook

Lead strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that Bitcoin’s significant 20% slide in mid-October, exacerbated by futures deleveraging and the Balancer exploit, has effectively reset market leverage. This has created a more stable foundation for future growth. With futures markets returning to healthier levels, JPMorgan believes Bitcoin's "volatility-adjusted fair value" is considerably higher than its current trading price.

JPMorgan's comparative analysis between Bitcoin and gold suggests that BTC remains undervalued by approximately 67% when adjusted for volatility and total private investment in gold. The analysts propose that achieving parity with gold on this adjusted basis would necessitate Bitcoin trading near $170,000.

Market Analysts Spot Early Signs of Strength

Traders are closely monitoring technical indicators for confirmation of a potential bottom following the recent price drop. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe observed that Bitcoin has already experienced a short-term bounce. However, he emphasized the critical importance of the $106,000 level, a former support zone that has now become resistance.

“If Bitcoin breaks above that level,” van de Poppe explained, “it could mark the beginning of a shift toward more positive sentiment.” He further noted that while the current rebound is encouraging, definitive confirmation of a trend reversal will only be established once the price closes above this key threshold.

Nasdaq-Bitcoin Divergence Raises Questions

Market strategist Crypto Rover highlighted a significant lag in Bitcoin's performance compared to the Nasdaq, indicating a widening divergence between the two assets. A chart shared on X illustrated the continued upward trajectory of U.S. equities while Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase.

Historically, Bitcoin has often mirrored equity market trends with a slight delay. However, the current disparity suggests that investor appetite for risk assets is becoming more selective. Rover characterized the divergence as "a wide margin that could soon narrow — one way or another."

Gold Volatility and Institutional Positioning

JPMorgan's optimistic projection for Bitcoin is also supported by the rising volatility of gold, which has made Bitcoin a more attractive option on a risk-adjusted basis. The bank observed that Bitcoin's volatility ratio relative to gold has fallen below 2.0. This means Bitcoin now absorbs less than twice the risk capital of gold, a notable improvement from earlier in the year.

This trend positions Bitcoin as an increasingly competitive alternative for institutional investors seeking asymmetric exposure. As the correlation dynamics between Bitcoin, gold, and equities continue to shift, traders are actively recalibrating their portfolios in anticipation of the next market cycle.

Sentiment Turns Cautiously Optimistic

Despite the recent sharp correction, several analysts are now describing the market sentiment as cautiously optimistic. With deleveraging largely concluded, gold volatility increasing, and macroeconomic conditions showing signs of stabilization, Bitcoin appears to be regaining its footing after one of its most significant drawdowns of 2025.

Nevertheless, traders widely agree that a decisive break above the $106,000 level remains the critical milestone. If this occurs, analysts believe confidence could return rapidly, potentially setting the stage for a new uptrend that could ultimately validate JPMorgan's $170,000 price target.

For the present moment, Bitcoin's bounce has provided a measure of relief. However, it remains uncertain whether this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery or merely a temporary pause within a volatile year.