Key Insights
- •Bitcoin price trades above $85,000, forming a higher low on December 2, 2025, but this support is tentative.
- •On-chain URPD analysis reveals a significant support vacuum from $83,300 down to $66,900.
- •A break below $83,300 could trigger a swift decline toward $70,000 or lower.
- •One significant whale has accumulated over $226 million in Bitcoin in the last six days.
- •The bullish case involves reclaiming $88,000 and targeting $92,000+, while the bearish case suggests a retest of $70,000.
Bitcoin price dipped to $85,000 on December 2, 2025, forming what analysts are watching as a higher low. However, this level is considered tentative support, and a break below $83,300 could accelerate declines toward the $66,900 to $70,000 range, potentially erasing recent gains amid ongoing volatility.
Analyst Ali Martinez, using Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data partitioned by all-time high (ATH) holders, highlighted a concerning lack of on-chain support between $83,300 and $66,900. This analysis indicates that a significant portion of Bitcoin's supply last moved within these price ranges, with 19% of supply at $70,000 and 49% at $53,000.
This bearish on-chain signal emerges as Bitcoin trades 32% below its October peak of $126,300. ETF outflows totaled $3.8 billion in November, according to SoSoValue data on December 1, contributing to pressure on the overall crypto market capitalization, which stood at $3.1 trillion.
Despite these pressures, whale accumulation continues to provide a counterbalance. Data from @TedPillows indicates that a single entity acquired over $226 million worth of Bitcoin in the six days leading up to December 2.
For traders, the current market setup necessitates caution. A decisive reclaim of the $88,000 level is seen as crucial for bulls, while failure to do so could lead to a retest of the November lows around $82,000.
Key Support Levels Shaping Bitcoin Price Outlook
Since late November, Bitcoin price has been trading within a range of $82,000 to $88,000. The opening of December at $91,500 was quickly followed by a retreat, testing the $85,000 level.
Ali Martinez's URPD analysis, shared on December 2, partitions UTXOs by when they were last moved relative to the all-time high. This reveals that older coins, acquired before 2021, are concentrated in the $19,000–$30,000 range. Holders who acquired Bitcoin in 2024 and 2025 predominantly cluster in the $53,000–$70,000 range.
Martinez explicitly stated, "Below $83,300, Bitcoin has very little support until $66,900," drawing attention to a significant price vacuum spanning $16,400 where minimal realized capital is present. This observation was accompanied by a chart illustrating the URPD distribution.
Glassnode data, as depicted in the accompanying chart, corroborates this finding. Only 9% of Bitcoin's supply was realized between $70,000 and $83,300, in stark contrast to the 45% of supply realized above $100,000.
This identified support gap echoes historical market corrections. During the significant downturn in May 2022, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 40% in a matter of weeks after breaching similar URPD voids.
Current technical indicators show the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 as of December 2, suggesting oversold conditions according to TradingView metrics. However, divergence in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hints at a potential weakening of momentum.
In contrast, analyst Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) presented a more optimistic outlook in a widely viewed post, stating, "Bitcoin made a higher low – $85,000 confirmed as support."
Jelle pointed to Bitcoin hitting monthly and weekly highs within the first minute of December, a pattern that has historically preceded significant rallies in 2017 and 2021, based on historical backtests from a CryptoQuant report dated December 1.
Analyst Ted Pillows (@TedPillows) further elaborated on the price action in a series of posts. He described Bitcoin as being in a "no zone," emphasizing the need to reclaim $88,000 to avoid a potential retest of the November low at $82,000.
Later, Ted Pillows highlighted substantial whale activity, noting, "A whale has bought $226,000,000 in $BTC in the past 6 days." This whale accumulation was tracked to a wallet that had been inactive since 2023.
This whale accumulation aligns with data from Santiment released on December 1. The data indicated that whales, defined as entities holding 1,000 or more BTC, added approximately 18,000 coins to their holdings during the recent dip. This accumulation helped offset $1.2 billion in sales from retail investors.
On-Chain Signals Amid Bitcoin Price Choppiness
The current price action of Bitcoin (BTC) reflects a divided market sentiment. The higher low established at $85,000, as highlighted by Jelle, found support at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This EMA has historically acted as a significant support level, holding firm in 85% of tests since 2023, according to Glassnode's update on December 1.
However, trading volume remains subdued. Spot trading volume on December 2 stood at $45 billion, representing a 20% decrease from November's averages, as reported by CoinMarketCap.
Futures open interest has also seen a decline, dropping to $28 billion. This suggests reduced leverage in the market following the significant liquidations of $2.1 billion that occurred during the "1011 crash" on November 11.
The consistent moves by Bitcoin whales are providing a stabilizing force in the market. The wallet tracked by Ted Pillows, which began with 1,200 BTC on November 26, has been accumulating assets through over-the-counter (OTC) desks. This strategy helps avoid market slippage and is a tactic previously observed during Bitcoin's pre-halving accumulation phases in 2024.
Broader on-chain metrics offer additional context. The realized capitalization of Bitcoin stands at $520 billion, indicating a strong HODLing sentiment among long-term holders. Notably, 74% of the Bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for over 12 months, an increase from 70% in October, according to Glassnode data.
Despite these positive signs, the MVRV Z-Score is currently at 1.8, which is below the 2.0 threshold typically associated with bull market territory. This suggests that Bitcoin may be undervalued, but it also implies room for further downside pressure if the critical $83,300 support level fails.
The commentary sections of these analytical posts reveal a clear division among Bitcoin traders. Martinez's URPD analysis, for instance, drew skepticism from some users, with one commenter, @truthforvic, questioning, "Are you ever right Ali?"
In contrast, Jelle's posts received a predominantly bullish response, with 39 replies. A comment from @newfinance24 exemplifies this sentiment: "Reclaim 92k and everyone is bullish again." Ted Pillows' alert about whale accumulation sparked the most engagement, with 138 replies. @MoonboyAnalyst's comment captured the prevailing sentiment among those who believe in the whale activity: "When a single wallet absorbs $226M in six days, it tells you smart money still sees upside while the crowd panics."
Macroeconomic factors are also playing a role in shaping market sentiment. The Federal Reserve's halt of quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1 injected liquidity into the financial system. However, the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, scheduled for release on December 5, could significantly influence market sentiment. Economists are closely watching for inflation figures, with Bloomberg's December 1 preview indicating expectations of 2.8% inflation.
Bitcoin ETF flows have shown a positive reversal, with $150 million in inflows recorded on December 1. This marks a turnaround from the $3.8 billion in outflows observed throughout November, according to Farside Investors' report on December 2.
Upside Push or Deeper Correction?
A decisive break above the $88,000 resistance level could propel Bitcoin price towards the $92,000 target. This scenario aligns with Jelle's "red Monday, green week" prediction, a pattern that has historically delivered significant weekly gains of up to 15% following similar price wicks in previous market cycles.
Ted Pillows' "no zone" thesis suggests that failure to hold the current support levels could lead to a retest of the $82,000 low, followed by a potential descent towards the $70,000 cluster identified in the URPD data. At this level, buyers who acquired Bitcoin in 2024 average around $68,500, according to Glassnode.
Short-term risks appear to be tilted towards the downside. The heatmap data for December 2 indicates a rebuilding of open interest around the $85,000 level, which could attract short sellers if this support falters.
However, sustained whale interest, evidenced by a 12% increase in large transfer volumes since November, mirrors the accumulation patterns observed during the capitulation bottom in 2023, a period that preceded a substantial 150% rally.
Bitcoin price (BTC) is currently at a critical juncture, with its trajectory hinging on market conviction. While Ali Martinez's chart warns of critical support voids below the current price, and whales are quietly accumulating, the initial days of December are poised to provide clarity on the short-term direction.
Historically, breaches of URPD voids have resulted in average price drops of 25%. However, in approximately 60% of such instances, Bitcoin experienced rapid rebounds, particularly when accompanied by significant whale inflows.