Key Insights
- •Bitcoin price is showing early support as retail long positions, loss-selling, and stablecoin strength help slow the recent drop.
- •The bounce holds only if Bitcoin moves above $102,808 and then $106,000, which are the important recovery levels on the chart.
- •A daily close below $89,243 weakens the rebound idea and puts the market back at risk of deeper selling.
Bitcoin price was up about 1.6% at press time. The rise is small, but it has caught attention because the market has been weak for days.
Many traders want to know if this bounce can grow or if it is only a short pause before another fall. The answer depends on a few signs that are slowly improving on the blockchain and in trading activity.
On-Chain Signals Show Early Support for Bitcoin Price
Some on-chain numbers now hint that selling pressure may be slowing down for Bitcoin price.
One sign comes from retail traders. Many small accounts are still in long positions, which means they expect higher prices later.
Even after the drop, more than 73% of them continue to hold. In fact, they are long on Bitcoin USD, expecting a price rise.
Short-term holders have also been selling their coins below their buy price. More than 60,000 BTC were sold at a loss.
Selling at a loss often appears when people are scared or tired, and it commonly shows near the bottom areas when pressure starts to cool down.
Stablecoins add another clue. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) RSI is around 26. This number tells us how much buying power stablecoins have.
A low reading means stablecoins can easily buy Bitcoin if traders become confident again.
Another sign is the trader’s loss margin, which is near -16%. When this number drops below -12%, Bitcoin price has often tried to bounce in the past.
This means many weak trades may already be cleared out. Together, these signs suggest the heavy Bitcoin USD selling of the last few days may be easing.
Other Market Signals Support the Bounce for Bitcoin USD
Analysts are also watching taker volume.
Taker volume shows if buyers or sellers are pushing harder in real-time orders. Sellers still have control here, but sharp selling waves usually slow down once traders run out of coins to dump.
Some analysts think this turning point may be close.
Retail activity and long positioning show that small buyers have not fully given up. This does not guarantee a Bitcoin price rise, but it helps the market hold steady when fear is high.
The Chart Shows the Levels the BTC Price Must Clear
Only after the on-chain signs do we look at the price chart.
Bitcoin price bounced from around $89,243, which is the lower line of a falling channel. A falling channel is a shape where the price moves down between two slanted lines.
The BTC price bounce here is normal because this line has acted as support before. This is also where a common chart signal recently happened.
The BTC price 50-day EMA moved below the 200-day EMA last week, a death crossover.
An EMA is a moving average that gives more weight to recent prices. When the shorter one moves below the longer one, it is usually a sign of weakness.
That move has already happened, and the price dropped after it.
For the bounce to grow stronger, Bitcoin USD price needs to move above $102,808.
Crossing this level also puts the price above the 20-day EMA, which is a short-term guide that traders use to judge early strength. The bigger test sits at $106,000.
Moving above $106,000 also breaks the upper line of the falling channel. When the price breaks above this shape, it often lets the market calm down and climb more steadily.
A larger zone near $110,500 only becomes important once BTC price clears the first two levels.
If the Bitcoin price falls below $89,243 with a clear daily close, the rebound idea becomes weak again. This level supported the recent bounce, so losing it would show sellers are still strong.