Bitcoin's Price Struggles Near $100K Resistance
Bitcoin's recent surge has caught the attention of many, but it now faces a significant barrier at the $100,000 mark. Technical analyst Rekt Capital points out that Bitcoin has historically overextended above its Bull Market Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) before encountering a breakdown. This pattern, observed in previous cycles, shows Bitcoin reaching new highs, followed by sharp corrections. At press time, Bitcoin is trading around $97,529, suggesting that it might be approaching a similar turning point in the market. Although Bitcoin’s price has been moving upward, historical patterns point to the possibility of a new macro lower high. Such a scenario would likely lead to a price retracement soon.
The Gamma Wall and Resistance at $100K
Bitcoin's path to breaking $100K is being hindered by a gamma wall formed by options contracts. The Escape Velocity Model (v3.1) shows a large $129.9 million call gamma wall at the $100K strike. As Bitcoin approaches this level, market makers who sold these options are forced to sell Bitcoin to hedge their positions. This creates selling pressure, which absorbs buying demand and prevents the price from rising above the $100K mark.
In order to push past this resistance, the market would need $574 million in net buying volume. Without this, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound. Smaller liquidation pockets near $98K and $99K may not be enough to break through the $100K barrier. The chances of a breakout within one day remain low at 2.2%, though the likelihood of a breakout over the next 30 days increases to 80%, suggesting that Bitcoin may stay range-bound until significant liquidity enters the market.