Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a decline to its lowest point in eight days on Tuesday, as prevailing macroeconomic factors presented new challenges for bullish investors.
Key Market Observations
- •Bitcoin is currently testing the 2025 and 2026 yearly open price levels following a perceived "failed" breakout from its multi-month trading range.
- •Analysis suggests that the current weakness in Bitcoin's price is not directly attributable to the broader macroeconomic environment.
- •Potential downside targets for Bitcoin include a retreat to levels not seen in 15 months.
Bitcoin Breakout Falters as $90,000 Level Becomes a Hurdle
Trading data indicated that the price of Bitcoin began to re-target the $90,000 mark in the period leading up to the commencement of the Wall Street trading session this week.
This price action was anticipated to be volatile due to a significant confluence of geopolitical and macroeconomic forces. A primary concern was the resurgence of trade tensions between the United States and the European Union, stemming from the former's proposed policies regarding Greenland.
The potential reintroduction of tariffs led to a downturn in risk assets, while precious metals saw their values surge to new all-time highs as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades commented on the situation, summarizing in a recent analysis on X: "Now fully back into the ~$84K-$94K range it has spend the past 2 months in already. Breakout failed and doesn't make for a pretty look now."
An accompanying chart illustrated the price decline through its 200-period simple moving average (SMA) and exponential moving average (EMA) on four-hour timeframes.
According to Daan Crypto Trades, the 2026 yearly open, situated around $87,000, has now become a point of interest as a potential support level.
He further elaborated on X, stating: "Been talking about that yearly open likely being taken out at some point as it's rare to see no wick below on the yearly candle. So better get that out of the way sooner than later if you ask me. Still just observing as I don't see any reason to trade this chop."
In parallel, trader and analyst Rekt Capital focused on the 2025 yearly open, which stands at $93,500. This level has been identified as a critical indicator for the weekly chart's performance.
Rekt Capital wrote on Monday alongside an explanatory chart: "In fact, Bitcoin has marginally Weekly Closed above $93500, therefore resembling more the April 2025 Weekly Close above $93500 than the November 2024 one (both green circles)."
Bitcoin will need to find a way to reclaim $93500 throughout the week to ensure this becomes a successful retest to confirm the breakout from the Weekly Range (black-black).
Potential Retreat to $58,000 for BTC Price
Data from exchange order books revealed signs of market stress on the day, with liquidations reaching $360 million in the 24 hours preceding the time of writing, according to information from CoinGlass.
Liquidations saw a notable spike overnight Sunday as US futures markets opened to news of renewed trade war concerns.
Despite the timing coinciding with macroeconomic events, Keith Alan, co-founder of the trading resource Material Indicators, asserted that the signs of a Bitcoin downturn were already evident to those paying close attention.
In an X post following the futures market opening, Alan stated: "If you were caught off guard by the Bitcoin selloff, you simply haven't been paying attention to the right things. This move had nothing to do with narratives. We've seen it developing in the charts, and have been talking about it for over a month."
Alan highlighted the occurrence of a "death cross," which involves the 21-week and 50-week SMAs. Historically, this technical indicator has often preceded a "macro bottom" for Bitcoin.
This cross occurs when the descending 21-period trendline intersects below the 50-period trendline. Alan indicated that he was observing the 100-week SMA, currently at $86,900, as a potential level for a bounce.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt expressed a more bearish outlook, forecasting a retreat below the $60,000 threshold.
The last time BTC/USD traded at this price level was in October 2024.
58k to $62k is where I think it is going $BTC
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) January 19, 2026
If it does not go there I will NOT be ashamed, so I do not need to see you trolls screen shot this in the future
I am wrong 50% of the time. It does not bother me to be wrong pic.twitter.com/NDOuSrqLwa