Critical Threshold in Play
Behind the scenes, one price level remains essential: Bitcoin has managed to hold above the cost basis of short‑term holders since May. Analysts describe this line as the dividing point between a continuing bull cycle and the risk of a deeper setback. For now, the market is testing areas of heavy supply where sellers have previously defended their positions.
The options arena is also undergoing a reset. After record contracts expired, open interest is rebuilding from fresh positioning rather than legacy hedges. That change has lowered short‑term volatility, though the curve remains tilted toward future strength. Long‑dated contracts continue to price volatility in the 39‑43% range, suggesting traders are bracing for meaningful movement later in the year.
Positioning Turns Conservative
Market participants are leaning on strategies that balance exposure with caution. Risk‑reversal trades and option spreads hint at optimism tempered by the possibility of downside shocks. Dealer positioning has also dampened the kind of hedge‑driven swings that dominated before the expiration event.
In its outlook, Glassnode describes the market as “neutral but constructive.” With ETF inflows returning and long‑term holder selling pressure easing, foundations appear solid. Yet the absence of a decisive breakout keeps the market waiting for a trigger — whether from macro forces, supply dynamics, or renewed speculative fervor.
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