Key Points
- •Bitcoin's supply in profit reaches 99.3%, signaling potential market dip.
- •Historical trends highlight 3%-10% corrections when profit exceeds 99%.
- •Institutional inflows remain strong, supporting overall bullish market.
On October 2025, 99.3% of Bitcoin’s supply was reportedly in profit, sparking speculation over potential short-term market corrections based on prior historical trends.
Such high profit levels typically precede corrections, raising distribution risks, yet current market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.
Data reveals that 99.3% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is currently in profit, a signal that often precedes a short-term market correction. This insight comes from on-chain analyst Ted Pillows, using data from CryptoQuant analytic models.
Ted Pillows, On-chain Analyst, CryptoQuant: "99.3% of all Bitcoin supply is now in profit. In the last 3 instances when the $BTC profit supply was 99% or more, a 3%-10% correction happened. Will this time be different?"
Ted Pillows notes that past instances of Bitcoin supply in profit exceeding 99% have led to market pullbacks between 3%-10%. Market analyst Darkfost observed that although sentiment is optimistic, it remains measured.
Bitcoin Supply and Market Trends
The immediate effect on the cryptocurrency market could include heightened distribution risks, as indicated by Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio reaching 2.4. This surpasses its one-year average of 1.9.
Financial implications may involve increased volatility in correlated assets such as Ethereum and other altcoins, particularly if large holders choose to realize profits to secure gains.
Risk of Market Volatility
Institutional appetite for Bitcoin remains high, as evidenced by record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs totaling $3.2 billion. Analysts suggest that liquidity near the $100K mark may still be prone to profit-taking despite bullish sentiment.
Historically, previous occurrences of high-profit supply have resulted in temporary price dips but not long-term trend reversals. Data and historical trends suggest the market could remain robust after a potential correction.