Key Takeaways
- •Matrixport says Bitcoin has entered a new bull cycle based on a historical signal.
- •The firm sees a statistical path toward ~$65K in 12 months and ~$125K in 18 months.
- •The upcoming halving aligns with this projected cycle.
A Rarely Triggered Indicator Signals a New Bull Cycle
According to institutional research firm Matrixport, Bitcoin has crossed a threshold that historically separates late-bear capitulation from the early stretch of a new bull market. This shift was not driven by news, ETFs, or regulatory catalysts, but by a structural milestone deep within the chart.
The Indicator Explained
Matrixport's model is built around a single event: whether Bitcoin manages to print a new 12-month high after spending at least a year without one. Every time this has happened in the past – excluding the outlier 2012 cycle – a multi-month bull phase has followed.
This trigger quietly activated when Bitcoin moved above $31,000, its highest value since June 2022. It was not a dramatic chart pattern or a blow-off candle, but a subtle breach that historically marks the moment when bearish momentum fails for good.
Insights from Previous Cycles
Matrixport examined three comparable historical periods: 2015, 2019, and 2020. They found that each time this indicator fired, Bitcoin went on to rally aggressively over the next year and a half. On average across those cycles:
- •One year after the signal, Bitcoin had doubled or better.
- •Eighteen months after the signal, Bitcoin had tripled or better.
Using this average, the firm projects a potential range of $65,000 in the next 12 months and a possible move toward $125,000 by late 2024 if the pattern repeats. This is presented not as a forecast of certainty, but as a probability-weighted outcome based on Bitcoin's behavior during prior transitions from bear markets into new cycles.
Halving Aligns with the Projected Timeline
Bitcoin's next block-reward halving, expected in March/April 2024, was not factored into the model but happens to fall within the same projected window. Historically, halving events have amplified upside once a new market cycle is already in motion. Matrixport views the halving not as the cause of the signal, but as an additional tailwind that arrives at an opportune time.
Current Market Position
Bitcoin was recently trading in the $30,700 range, within what Matrixport describes as the "early expansion zone." This is typically the stage of a new cycle where excitement is still limited, disbelief is high, and accumulation tends to outweigh profit-taking.
Whether history repeats or diverges will determine if Bitcoin is at the beginning of a full-scale bull run or simply experiencing a temporary rebound. However, according to Matrixport's model, the cycle may have already turned, and a significant portion of the market is only now beginning to realize it.