Following a dip below $82,000 last Friday, Bitcoin has begun to regain momentum, prompting analysts to suggest that the cryptocurrency could continue its upward trajectory. Market sentiment appears to be shifting as signs of stabilization emerge after weeks of volatility influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and fluctuating Federal Reserve expectations.
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin’s recent bounce suggests the formation of a local bottom, bolstered by declining selling pressure.
- •Market analysts highlight a potential second wave of selling as a key indicator of exhaustion in the current downturn.
- •Federal Reserve rate hike expectations have dramatically shifted, increasing the likelihood of a December rate cut to approximately 70%.
- •Anticipated liquidity injections by the Fed could bolster risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, amid a broader macroeconomic environment.
Market Analysis and Outlook
Crypto market analysts remain cautiously optimistic as Bitcoin’s price stabilizes after reaching its lowest point since mid-April. On Friday, Bitcoin dipped to approximately $80,600 on Coinbase, representing a 36% correction from its peak above $126,000 in early October. However, recent data indicates a potential change in sentiment, with the risk-off signals dropping sharply, suggesting that the most intense selling pressure may be waning. Swissblock analysts note that this week is critical, as continued decline in sell-side pressure could signal the end of the recent downtrend.
“The Risk-Off Signal is dropping sharply, which tells us two things: selling pressure has eased, and the worst of the capitulation is likely behind us, for now.”
Technical indicators and historical data suggest that a second wave of selling often occurs during market bottoms, but this wave is typically weaker and signals eventual exhaustion among sellers. A sustained hold of previous lows can often mark a turning point, shifting control back to bullish traders.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has surged from around 30% to nearly 70%, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. This shift has significantly altered market expectations, as recent surveys indicate traders increasingly favor a reduction to support high-risk assets. Market observers highlight that this change reflects a swift reevaluation of monetary policy prospects, which could ultimately fuel a broader rally in the crypto space.
Moreover, market analysts suggest that upcoming Federal Reserve actions, such as liquidity injections or reserve management strategies, could further bolster asset prices. Historically, periods of quantitative easing have preceded significant bullish runs in cryptocurrencies, reinforcing the view that a supportive macroeconomic environment could fuel further gains. As macroeconomic uncertainties persist, traders remain attentive to policy signals that could shape the next leg of crypto market growth.