Market analysts utilizing on-chain data suggest that Bitcoin could encounter another challenging phase in 2026 unless it reclaims critical support levels. The latest insights indicate that Bitcoin’s recent price movements echo patterns observed during previous bear markets, raising concerns about its long-term trajectory.
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin appears to be entering a new bear market, as its price remains below the yearly moving average.
- •Resisting a significant trendline at approximately $101,000 is crucial for bulls to sustain momentum.
- •Exchange inflows show increasing sell pressure, with investors withdrawing holdings in anticipation of further declines.
- •The current rally up to nearly $98,000 has not decisively broken through key resistance levels.
Market Analysis Indicates Bearish Trends
Recent research from the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant underscores the risk of a prolonged downturn for Bitcoin, similar to the patterns seen in 2022. Since late November, Bitcoin has surged roughly 21%, staging what appears to be a ‘bear market rally.’ While grabbing more than 20% from its lows around $80,500, this rally still falls short of guaranteeing a sustained recovery.
The core concern centers on Bitcoin’s position relative to its 365-day moving average. The asset recently declined by 19% past this threshold, confirming the move into a bear market, before rebounding to nearly $98,000. However, the critical level at $101,000—aligned with the 365-day moving average—remains a significant resistance barrier. Historically, crossing below this average has led to sharp declines, followed by failed attempts to reclaim it.
CryptoQuant notes that in 2022, Bitcoin similarly dipped below its 365-day moving average by 27%, only to rally by 47% before rejection set in. This pattern echoes current market conditions, emphasizing caution among investors.
The analysis also highlights rising exchange inflows, with recent weekly data showing the highest inflow of Bitcoin since late November 2025. Increased sell-side activity, as Bitcoin flows onto exchanges, signals potential for further downside, especially if buyers fail to defend key support levels.
Despite short-term bullish movements, experts advise skepticism, citing fundamental and technical indicators that maintain a bearish outlook. Historically, such inflows and price patterns have preceded extended downturns, prompting cautious optimism among seasoned traders.