Industry Performance Contrasts with Price Action
Core crypto operating businesses are demonstrating strength through business model transformations despite continued weak market performance, according to Bernstein analysts. The research firm noted this correction differs from past downturns because companies are actively executing strategic shifts toward new revenue sources.
Bitcoin finished November fluctuating between $82,000 and $92,000 before dropping to $86,000 on Monday. Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani stated markets still lack clear bottoming signals, though operating performance across the industry contrasts sharply with price action.
Crypto equity valuations have declined alongside digital asset prices. Coinbase fell 21% over 30 days, Circle dropped 37%, and Robinhood declined 12%, according to the Monday client note.
The analysts argued most speculative excess remains limited to Strategy copycat firms. Bernstein maintained its position that no realistic scenario threatens Strategy's viability, citing regulatory improvements and business model evolution as sources of sector resilience.
Coinbase's "Everything Exchange" Strategy
Coinbase is aggressively pursuing what it calls an everything exchange strategy. The platform aims to integrate crypto trading, tokenized stock markets, prediction markets, and consumer payments into one unified system, moving beyond its historical dependence on trading revenue.
Stablecoin operations now generate roughly 20% of Coinbase revenues, yet investors continue to view the company primarily through a crypto market lens. Trading has represented over half of revenue historically, limiting investor confidence during market downturns.
Regulatory Progress and Expansion
Recent legislative progress, including the GENIUS Act and expected market-structure bills, are enabling Coinbase to compete more directly with international exchanges. The company recently purchased a token-launch platform and supported Monad's $269 million capital raise, which attracted more than 85,000 investors across 70-plus countries with 1.43x oversubscription.
Bernstein estimates Coinbase likely earned success fees of 2% to 5% on that fundraising. The analysts expect additional tokenized equity and prediction market launches at Coinbase's Dec. 17 event, where users will trade multiple asset classes settling in USDC on a single platform.
The exchange is expanding derivatives offerings through its $2.9 billion Deribit acquisition, with futures and options already comprising over 5% of Q3 trading revenue. Coinbase is also developing the Base app, previously called Coinbase Wallet, as an integrated wallet connecting Base applications with stablecoin payments and social rewards.
Market Weakness as Opportunity
Bernstein characterized current market weakness as a long-term opportunity rather than structural deterioration, given strong execution across operating crypto businesses.