Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $126,223 on October 6th, marking a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency market. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $123,500. This upward trajectory is attributed to increased spot ETF inflows, the decline of BTC balances on exchanges to the lowest level in six years, and a contraction in supply. The U.S. government shutdown has disrupted data flow, while a weakening dollar has intensified risk appetite. Major altcoins including Ethereum, BNB, and Solana followed Bitcoin’s upward trend, although XRP hovered around the $3 threshold.
BTC Supply and Market Trends
According to SoSoValue data, weekly spot ETF inflows have exceeded $3.2 billion, the highest since November 2024. Since January, total ETF inflows surpassed $60 billion. Ryan Lee from Bitget emphasized that increasing institutional demand is maturing the market narrative. Concurrently, the BTC reserve in exchange wallets fell to 2.83 million units, with 170,000 BTC withdrawn from exchanges in the past month alone. The preference for storing in private wallets is further squeezing the short‑term supply, providing support for price growth.
Alex Kuptsikevich from FxPro noted that long‑term wallets have been active with profit‑taking since July, warning that if demand loses momentum, the available supply could shock the market. During the recent rally, the total market value of cryptocurrencies hit $4.27 trillion before declining to $4.24 trillion. Despite the market sentiment index indicating a level of greed at 71, it remains below the euphoria threshold, with $125,000 being monitored as a crucial resistance level for Bitcoin.
Moreover, the extension of the U.S. government shutdown into its second week prompts investors to seek safe havens and limited‑supply assets. Like the 2013 shutdown, capital flows into these assets are increasing. The weak dollar and bond pricing continue to support the expectation that the Fed maintains a cautious stance.
Current State of the Altcoin Market
Main altcoins exhibit a positive trend, similar to Bitcoin. Ethereum saw a 4% rise, surpassing $4,700 with a target of the $4,800–5,000 range. XRP approached $3, and following a strong weekly performance, BNB reached a new record above $1,240. Solana increased by over 12% over the past week.
In the Cardano sector, the $0.8572 level stands out as a significant point, while the market has observed a broadly spreading leadership effect. Strategically, as ETF flows remain strong, the theme of supply contraction is expected to continue dominating the market.