Macro analyst Jordi Visser posits that Bitcoin may be experiencing an unofficial initial coin offering (ICO) as long-term holders divest their assets and new investors acquire them, leading to a broader distribution of the cryptocurrency's supply.
In a recent podcast episode and Substack post, Visser observed that dormant Bitcoin holdings, some dating back to the earliest days of the cryptocurrency, are steadily moving. This movement is not characterized by panic but rather a consistent, gradual release. Concurrently, new investors are actively accumulating Bitcoin during price dips.
Visser drew a parallel to the traditional financial world, describing this phase as akin to an Initial Public Offering (IPO). In an IPO, early investors begin to cash out, founders achieve financial success, and venture capitalists realize returns for their limited partners.
“The excitement of concentration is being replaced by the durability of distribution. The early believers are passing the torch to long-term holders who bought at higher prices and have different motivations. This is what success looks like. This is Bitcoin having its IPO.”
Bitcoin Consolidating in Sideways Movement
Bitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced price fluctuations, trading within a range of approximately $106,786 to $115,957 over the past seven days. Visser explained that when a company goes public and its early investors begin selling their stakes, the stock often consolidates, even amidst broader market rallies.
New market participants are accumulating Bitcoin, but they are proceeding with caution. They appear to be waiting for the distribution phase across a wider market to conclude before increasing their acquisition efforts.
“The result? A sideways grind that drives everyone crazy. The fundamentals are fine. The broader market is rallying. But the stock just… sits there,” Visser commented. He added, “The consolidation is frustrating. The sentiment is terrible.”
Visser further elaborated, “This is the exact pattern you see after a major IPO when lock-up periods expire. The stock doesn’t crash. It consolidates. Early investors sell. New long-term holders accumulate. Ownership transfers from the visionaries to the institutions.”
Continued Faith Despite Price Pressure
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a sentiment indicator for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, has shown "fear" ratings since Wednesday, with the previous week also averaging a fear rating. Despite this, Visser believes that underlying faith in Bitcoin remains strong.
This enduring confidence is evidenced by ongoing exchange-traded fund (ETF) approvals, new highs in Bitcoin network hashrate, and the increasing adoption of stablecoins.
“In a bear market, there are no buyers. Price collapses because everyone wants out and nobody wants in. But look at what’s actually happening: Bitcoin is consolidating, not collapsing. Every dip gets bought. The price isn’t making new lows, it’s holding a range,” Visser stated.
“The divergence from risk assets is confusing. But the fundamentals are stronger than ever. And the structure, the distribution of holdings from concentrated to fragmented, is exactly what Bitcoin needs to graduate from a revolutionary experiment to a durable monetary asset.”
IPO Process Expected to Continue
Visser anticipates that the "IPO" phase for Bitcoin will likely persist for some time. Typically, such processes can last between six to 18 months. While Bitcoin operates at a faster pace than traditional assets, the current phase is estimated to be around the six-month mark.
Upon completion of this phase, a likely outcome is reduced price volatility. This is attributed to the ownership becoming distributed among a significantly larger number of individuals, shifting away from concentration among early holders and founders.
“For now, expect continued consolidation. Expect Bitcoin to keep frustrating people by not rallying with risk assets. Expect the sentiment to remain poor for a little while longer but be wary because there will be no signal. It will just start because the good news is already present.”