In 2025, bitcoin and USDT play a key role in the crypto ecosystem, with a dynamic that directly influences market movements. Glassnode reveals a negative correlation between these two assets, offering valuable clues to anticipate end-of-year trends.
In brief
- •The negative correlation between bitcoin and USDT shows that massive USDT outflows coincide with BTC increases.
- •Projections for USDT at the end of 2025 remain stable around $1, with minimal fluctuations, supported by the GENIUS Act.
- •Bitcoin could close 2025 around $100,000, but caution is needed if USDT flows reverse.
Negative Correlation Between Bitcoin and USDT According to Glassnode
Glassnode has highlighted a marked negative correlation between bitcoin price and net USDT flows on exchanges. Indeed, when BTC rises, investors massively withdraw USDT from platforms, often to buy BTC or take profits. Conversely, during corrections, USDT flows into exchanges, signaling profit taking or market exit.
Moreover, data show net USDT outflows ranging from -100 to -200 million dollars per day during euphoric phases. At bitcoin’s peak of $126,000, these outflows even exceeded $220 million on a 30-day moving average. These movements reflect investors’ confidence and serve as a barometer of market sentiment.
This negative correlation between bitcoin and USDT is explained by the fact that investors use USDT as a temporary refuge during corrections, then reinvest it in bitcoin during bullish phases. USDT flows thus become a leading indicator to anticipate BTC movements.
Projections for USDT at Year-End: What Do Analysts Say?
Projections for USDT at the end of 2025 remain generally stable, with a consensus around a value close to 1 dollar. Analysts agree on minor fluctuations, ranging from 0.99 to 1.02 dollars. Kraken, for example, predicts a slight appreciation to 1.01 dollars, while CoinGape anticipates a possible peak at 1.02 dollars. Several factors influence this stability:
- •The GENIUS Act in the United States strengthens confidence in stablecoins by imposing liquid reserves and increased transparency;
- •The launch of the USAT stablecoin, which could support USDT stability by offering a regulated alternative;
- •The use of USDT for cross-border transactions and as a store of value, which limits the risks of prolonged depegging.
The Impact of USDT on Bitcoin in December 2025: Rise or Correction?
Projections for bitcoin in December 2025 are mostly positive, with a dominant scenario placing its price around $100,000. Bitget, for example, anticipates a rise to $99,945, supported by growing institutional demand and continued USDT stability. This trend is based on the history of USDT flows, which suggest a demand recovery after profit-taking phases.
However, Glassnode warns of short-term fragility. If USDT flows reverse and net inflows become positive, this could signal increased profit-taking and exert downward pressure on bitcoin price. Caution is therefore necessary, especially if USDT starts to flow massively into exchanges. Investors will need to closely monitor USDT flows to anticipate BTC’s next moves.
The negative correlation between bitcoin and USDT offers valuable clues to understand crypto market dynamics at this end of 2025. With stable projections for USDT and a bullish trend for BTC, investors have reasons to be optimistic.