Key Indicators Signal Cooling Speculative Activity
Bitcoin appears to be entering a new accumulation phase as key on-chain metrics signal cooling speculative activity. According to analyst Axel Adler Jr, Bitcoin’s Heat Macro Phase has dropped to 0.2, placing it firmly in the Bottom or Accumulation zone.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that similar conditions historically align with low volatility and price consolidation before major uptrends. Comparable readings were observed near $6,000 in 2020 and $15,000 in 2022, both preceding significant rallies.
Adler notes that for another sustained rally to form, volatility must ease while global market conditions remain stable for at least a week. The current pattern indicates that traders are repositioning portfolios and accumulating at key support levels.
This cooling phase could serve as the foundation for Bitcoin’s next growth stage if macro stability persists. Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap data shows Bitcoin trading at $111,434.02, up 1.87% over the past day and 6.09% on the week, with steady hourly gains of 0.32%.
Institutional Activity and Derivatives Expansion
In parallel, Bitcoin’s derivatives market continues to grow as institutional and speculative participation expands. CoinGlass data reports Bitcoin options open interest has reached a record $63 billion, tripling 2023 highs of $20–25 billion.
This surge reflects growing demand for higher strike prices, signalling bullish sentiment even amid volatile trading conditions. Rising open interest also highlights increased liquidity and leverage, underscoring renewed investor confidence in BTC’s medium-term outlook.
Moreover, according to CryptoQuant, mid-sized “Dolphin” wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC have added 681,000 BTC in 2025. Their holdings remain above the one-year moving average, indicating sustained accumulation by long-term investors.
Meanwhile, Adler notes the Bitcoin Futures Flow Index stands near 48.3%, showing equilibrium between bullish and bearish positioning. Although volatility and liquidations persist, this balance may precede a breakout once trading pressure subsides, potentially setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next major momentum shift.