Bitcoin is under pressure after losing the $100,000 mark, triggering fresh concerns about the potential end of its bullish cycle. A sharp drop in Open Interest and increased sell pressure from long-term holders suggest weakening market confidence as macro uncertainty builds ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.
Bitcoin Loses $100K Level as Selling Pressure Rises
Bitcoin has dropped sharply from its recent highs, falling 13% over the past week and 18% in the last 30 days. It is now trading near $91,000, down from its October all-time high of over $126,000. Over the last 24 hours, the price has fluctuated between $90,000 and $94,000.
The drop below the $100,000 level sparked debate about whether the market cycle has peaked. Analysts also noted increased caution among investors as the Federal Reserve’s next policy move remains unclear.
Futures Open Interest and Leverage Fall Sharply
Bitcoin Futures Open Interest (OI) has declined sharply, suggesting reduced participation or liquidation of leveraged positions. In early October, OI stood at $94.12 billion. By mid-November, it had dropped to $67.21 billion, marking a 28.6% decrease.
Despite the fall, the current OI levels are similar to those recorded in late 2024. The estimated leverage ratio has also dropped to levels last seen in March and April 2025. This indicates that traders are using less borrowed capital amid volatile conditions.
The Futures market, although pressured, has not seen a complete collapse in trading volume. However, the broader mood remains cautious, especially as uncertainty surrounds the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.
Long-Term Holders Drive New Wave of Sell Pressure
According to analyst Darkfost, long-term holders (LTHs) have started adding real sell pressure. Data from Spent Transaction Output (STXO) shows a noticeable increase in LTH activity. Short-term holders (STHs) remain active but balanced, while LTH flows have spiked.
This pattern often appears during market tops or during periods of heavy stress. It reflects a shift in sentiment among seasoned investors, who are typically slower to react but tend to move large volumes.
The broader crypto environment has changed compared to past cycles. Institutional adoption has grown, and exchange-traded products are now available. However, the rapid liquidation event on October 10, which wiped out $19 billion in value, continues to weigh on sentiment especially among altcoins.
With interest rate policy uncertain and market structure weakening, Bitcoin may remain rangebound through December unless new catalysts emerge.