Bitcoin starts $100K ‘capitulation’ as BTC price metric sees big volatility

Key Takeaways

• •
  Bitcoin experienced its worst October performance since 2018, reflecting trader apprehension about its future outlook.
• •
  Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) outflows have resumed, indicating that derivatives traders are hedging against risk despite favorable macroeconomic conditions.
• •
  Data from Bollinger Bands suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) price volatility is poised for a significant resurgence.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $110,000 on Saturday as traders maintained a bearish stance following a disappointing "Uptober" performance.

Bitcoin Demand Weakness Closes Out Uptober

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated that the BTC price was recovering from losses sustained during Friday's Wall Street trading session. This recovery followed a week characterized by frequent sell-offs, impacting both US exchanges and spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

Onchain analytics platform Glassnode reported that ETF outflows signal "rising sell pressure from TradFi investors and renewed weakness in institutional demand." Data from Farside Investors revealed that Friday saw $191 million in outflows, adding to the $488 million experienced on Thursday.

Glassnode further noted that markets had seemingly disregarded a positive macroeconomic factor: an interest-rate cut from the US Federal Reserve. The Fed implemented the anticipated rate cut, but its hawkish outlook for December has tempered optimism. "The initial rally faded as traders moved back into cautious mode, a shift clearly reflected in BTC’s options market," Glassnode communicated to X followers.

“The initial rally faded as traders moved back into cautious mode, a shift clearly reflected in BTC’s options market.”

Traders have adopted a cautious approach, with crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows describing the current Bitcoin situation as "time-based capitulation." Pillows warned on Friday, "BTC time-based capitulation is happening now. But for this, Bitcoin needs to consolidate above $100,000. A weekly close below this level will confirm the downtrend."

“A weekly close below this level will confirm the downtrend.”

Trader Daan Crypto Trades suggested that a significant price movement would only occur once BTC decisively broke through either the upper or lower boundary of its current range. The key levels of interest identified were $107,000 and $116,000.

$BTC Held $107K again and moved back to the mid range. It's just up one day, down the other at this point.

Range is ranging. Chop is chopping.

We remain patient for $107K or $116K to break to see some momentum back into this market and for the range to end. https://t.co/c7zhiRd92fpic.twitter.com/u8PpwzaDLn

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) October 31, 2025

Bollinger Bands Indicate Imminent BTC Price Volatility

The October monthly candle resulted in a disappointing 3.7% loss for BTC/USD, marking the worst performance for the month since 2018.

As previously reported, November has historically been Bitcoin's strongest performing month. Data from CoinGlass confirms an average upside of 42.5% for November since 2013.

Commentator Matthew Hyland observed that the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator continues to suggest that record volatility is on the horizon. "Monthly Bollinger Bands have reached the most extreme levels in Bitcoin’s entire history," he posted on X.

The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands has been a point of focus for market participants. Last month, the indicator's creator, John Bollinger, advised that it would soon be "time to pay attention" to volatility in both Bitcoin and major altcoins, signaling that a significant move could be imminent.