Bitcoin Struggles Below $113K: 104K BTC Sell-Off Raises Risks

Bitcoin (BTC) is grappling with a lack of conviction, according to a recent Glassnode analysis shared on X. The BTC Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap reveals a market struggling below key cost-basis levels, with demand softening and long-term holders (LTHs) increasingly selling off their positions.

This heatmap, spanning November 2024 to October 2025, shows Bitcoin’s price oscillating around the $113K short-term holder cost basis, a critical threshold for bullish momentum. Failure to reclaim this level raises the specter of a deeper correction toward the $88K Active Investors’ Realized Price.

Long-Term Holder Sell-Off Signals Waning Market Demand

The on-chain data highlights a troubling trend: LTHs are distributing approximately 104,000 BTC per month, the highest rate since mid-July, signaling waning confidence. This sell pressure, coupled with short-term holders exiting at a loss, has created a delicate market balance.

The heatmap’s color gradient, ranging from purple (low supply) to red (high supply), underscores significant resistance around $107K–$118K, where profit-taking has capped recent rebound attempts. Meanwhile, subdued volatility and balanced options positioning suggest a temporary calm, but the market remains vulnerable.

Key Support and Resistance Levels to Monitor

The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting could be a pivotal moment. A dovish stance might stabilize prices, while a hawkish surprise could reignite volatility and trigger further downside. Historically, Bitcoin has rebounded above Realized Price during bull markets, but current dynamics hint at a prolonged consolidation phase unless LTHs resume accumulation. For investors, this period demands caution, with the market’s next move hinging on macroeconomic cues and on-chain sentiment shifts.