Bitcoin remains resilient amidst ongoing market fluctuations, maintaining a range above $120,000 following recent leveraged trading adjustments. While short-term consolidation prevails, analysts see promising signs of upward potential towards year‑end, based on on‑chain metrics and market dynamics. Investors are closely watching volumetric signals and profit/loss trends, anticipating a possible move to new highs in the coming months as the crypto market navigates through its current phase of stability and cautious optimism.
- •Bitcoin holds steady above $120,000, with a recent 8% leverage reset in futures markets indicating cautious trading.
- •Spot demand and decline in open interest suggest renewed buyer confidence and a potential short‑term value zone around $123,000.
- •On‑chain data shows a near‑even split between profit‑taking and loss realization among short‑term holders, reinforcing market consolidation.
- •The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio indicates a bullish outlook, with potential upside of 15% to 25% into Q4, targeting $140,000 to $150,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a tight range between $120,000 and $125,000 following an orderly deleveraging process across futures markets. This adjustment, which witnessed an 8% reduction in leverage positions, suggests traders are adopting a more cautious stance. Nonetheless, the level around $120,000 has emerged as a key demand zone, supported by data from Binance that indicates increased spot buying interest, as reflected in the rising cumulative volume delta (CVD).
Meanwhile, open interest in perpetual futures contracts has decreased from a recent peak of $15.07 billion to $13.88 billion, a decline of approximately 7.9%. This contraction signals the closing of short positions amid a rebound in prices, hinting at a period of market consolidation. Traders appear to be establishing a new “value area” near $123,000, with overhead supply existing above this level.
On‑chain metrics bolster this view. Analyst Maartunn reports that short‑term holders are almost evenly split between realizing gains and losses, with 24,100 BTC sent to exchanges in profit compared to 19,700 BTC at a loss. This near balance suggests a cautious but stable market sentiment, favoring sideways movement rather than a swift breakout.
Data from Binance also highlights a recent leverage reset, with open interest declining from its October 6 high. This adjustment indicates traders are repositioning with increased caution, setting a potentially sustainable foundation for future gains once fresh capital resumes flow into the market.
Despite the current sideways trend, expert analysis points to a strong upside potential by the end of the year. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a key metric assessing whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to holder costs, currently indicates a possible 15% to 25% appreciation, possibly reaching $140,000 to $150,000. An even more bullish scenario, where MVRV surpasses 4.0, could push Bitcoin toward $170,000 or higher, driven by market euphoria and a potential post‑halving supply squeeze.