Bitcoin has recently gained momentum, surpassing the $91,700 mark with strong buyer interest. Although desired levels have not been fully reclaimed, the inability to give back short-term gains is a positive indicator for investors who have been accustomed to consistent declines. However, contrary to popular belief, individual investors may not be as indifferent as assumed.
Retail Investors in 2019-2025
In the midst of debates surrounding the “AI bubble” and monetary tightening implications, discussions have focused on retail investors’ retreat from risks. Yet, recent data suggests otherwise. Retail investors exhibit robust enthusiasm for ETFs, indicating an unscathed appetite for risk-taking.
Data shared by TKL from Cidatel reveals a noteworthy trend: retail investors have recorded net stock purchases for 23 consecutive months, displaying remarkable enthusiasm.
“Retail investors are poised for net stock purchases for the 23rd month. This series ranks second after the 32-month streak recorded between April 2020 and November 2022. Additionally, they were net ETF buyers for 158 consecutive trading days, selling on just six days since early 2024. Over 29 consecutive weeks, they bought more call options than put options, the longest streak on record. Retail investors are redefining the markets.”
The implications for cryptocurrencies can be observed through the South Korean example. Notably, investors there shifted to the stock market, particularly towards technology shares, in the second half of this year. This trend may reflect a broader shift among individual investors globally. The excitement of retail investors in tech stocks could contribute to weaker crypto performance. Combining this with increased sales by large investors since the October decline presents a clearer picture.
How will this end? According to the crypto four-year cycle narrative, a downturn is inevitable. For this cycle to differ, BTC needs to maintain stable levels through January.
Bitcoin Projections
If BTC surpasses $93,000, it could convince everyone of its potential to reach higher levels. Currently, it remains in a transition phase, and analysts remain cautious. Lark Davis emphasized key details for potential scenarios:
“Bitcoin has finally regained the $90,000 range. Where is the next real resistance?
First stop: the 50-week EMA, currently around $100,000.
This represents both a technical and psychological level. However, real resistance is slightly higher.
The next major resistance cluster is between $108,000 and $110,000, where multiple factors converge: 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, major horizontal resistance from previous structure, and Control Point from the fixed volume profile. Therefore, $100,000 is your first test. $108,000-$110,000 is the main boss challenge. We’re watching closely.”