Key Insights
- •Binance recorded a $9 billion surge in ERC-20 stablecoin reserves over 30 days, reaching its highest historical levels.
- •The Bitcoin price dropped to $93,673, marking the third-largest pullback of the current cycle, at 26% from all-time highs.
- •On-chain data indicated that short-term holder capitulation was approaching exhaustion levels, a phenomenon that has historically preceded local bottoms.
Binance witnessed a massive influx of stablecoin reserves as Bitcoin (BTC) price searched for a floor near $94,000, creating conditions that historically preceded bullish reversals.
CryptoQuant data from November 17 revealed that the 30-day change in ERC-20 stablecoin reserves on the exchange surged to $9 billion.
While not a new all-time high, the figure matched historical peak ranges that have been touched only a few times since late 2021, periods that often trigger major market movements.
Binance Traders Accumulate Dry Powder
The $9 billion stablecoin accumulation represented substantial buying power sitting on the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Investors actively moved dollar-pegged assets onto the platform, positioning themselves for potential market entry.
CryptoOnchain, a verified CryptoQuant analyst, characterized the inflow as a clear signal of soaring buying intent among traders.
The metric reaching historical resistance levels suggested potential buying pressure now matched the intensity seen during the most aggressive periods of past bull cycles.
Such peaks historically preceded increased volatility and the initiation of new uptrends. The sidelined capital could rapidly shift market dynamics in favor of bulls once a catalyst emerged.
Bitcoin Price Records Third-Largest Cycle Drawdown
Bitcoin fell below $100,000 last week, dropping to $93,673 before stabilizing.
The recent decline extended to nearly 26% from the current all-time high of $126,110, marking the third-largest pullback since the bull cycle began in early 2023.
According to Bitfinex Alpha’s November 17 report, Bitcoin price traded firmly below the short-term holders’ cost basis of $111,900 and the -1 standard deviation band near $97,500.
The inability to reclaim even the lower statistical band kept downside risks elevated on higher timeframes.
Risk sentiment on Bitcoin remained subdued amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
The asset underperformed compared to traditional financial markets, as the 43-day US government shutdown resulted in economic scars worth $7-14 billion in permanent GDP losses.
Short-Term Holder Capitulation Nears Exhaustion
On-chain indicators suggested that selling pressure from short-term holders began to moderate for the first time since early October.
The STH Realized Profit-Loss Ratio dropped below 0.20, indicating that over 80% of coins moved on-chain came from positions sold at a loss.
Historically, this 80% threshold marked local exhaustion points, typically leading to moderate relief bounces even within broader macro downtrends.
The severity of the current capitulation briefly exceeded the prior two major drawdowns of the cycle.
Short-term holder supply in profit collapsed to 7.6%, levels last seen near prior cycle troughs.
Bitfinex analysts noted that sustainable bottoms across multiple historical cycles only formed after short-term holders capitulated into losses.
The market appeared to approach that threshold once again, with near-term resilience contingent on whether this capitulation phase exhausted remaining sell-side pressure.
Consolidation Range Takes Shape
Binance’s stablecoin buildup coincided with Bitcoin price establishing a consolidation range between $94,000 and $106,000.
Until the price reclaimed the STH cost basis near $111,900 as sustained support, the probability of revisiting the lower boundary remained elevated.
The current drawdown mirrored contraction phases observed during June-October 2024 and February-April 2025, periods in which Bitcoin stabilized only after extended intervals of trading within compressed lower ranges.
Recovery required renewed demand inflows and structural market shifts.
Bitfinex analysts emphasized that metrics such as the Realized Profit-Loss ratio and the STH supply in profit indicated that the time seemed ripe for a bottom to form soon.
This represented a temporal assessment rather than a specific price level determination.
Macro Headwinds Persist Despite Bullish Signals
The US entered late 2025 with a noticeably softer macroeconomic backdrop.
The government shutdown ended, but renewed concerns over fiscal brinkmanship emerged ahead of another funding deadline in January.
Markets initially shrugged off the disruption, but sentiment deteriorated as investors reassessed fiscal risks and prospects for the Federal Reserve pause.
Inflation expectations remained elevated at 3.2% according to New York Fed projections, far above the 2% target.
Elevated inflation and heavy fiscal spending suggested the Fed keep rates higher for longer, adding pressure to risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Despite macro challenges, the confluence of $9 billion in stablecoin reserves on Binance and on-chain exhaustion signals created conditions for potential price stabilization.
Traders monitoring these metrics saw substantial capital waiting on the sidelines, ready to deploy once market structure confirmed a durable base.
The coming weeks will determine whether Bitcoin’s price finds its floor at current levels or requires additional time for consolidation before resuming upward momentum.