Bitcoin Trading 30% Below Fair Value – Liquidity Signals Major Upside Ahead

According to ecoinometrics data, Bitcoin is currently trading nearly 30% below its Nasdaq 100-implied fair value, with spot prices hovering near $110,000 versus an estimated fair value of $156,000. The last time such a wide gap appeared was in 2023 – right before a major rally. Analysts at ecoinometrics noted that unless the current bull market is already over, this discrepancy is likely to narrow as Bitcoin catches up with equities.

While Bitcoin has lagged behind tech stocks in recent weeks, its correlation with U.S. indexes remains intact. Bloomberg data shows that this is more of a recalibration than a breakdown, hinting that a rebound could follow once risk appetite returns.

Meanwhile, on-chain analyst Maartunn shared a chart highlighting that Bitcoin’s Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) Stochastic RSI has dropped into oversold territory — a condition historically associated with heavy liquidity on the sidelines. “Liquidity is loaded,” he wrote, noting that the current setup means the stablecoin supply is high relative to Bitcoin’s market cap, a signal that buyers have ample dry powder.

Derivatives Reset and Fresh Market Structure

October’s flash crash erased over $12 billion in open interest, marking one of the sharpest derivative contractions in Bitcoin’s history. Futures open interest dropped from $47 billion to $35 billion as leverage unwound rapidly. Analysts view this as a constructive development, clearing excessive speculation and paving the way for organic spot-driven growth.

BitMine and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee told CNBC that this “huge deleveraging event” remains a drag on sentiment, but with open interest now near record lows while fundamentals remain strong, a new rally could emerge before year-end.

At the same time, Glassnode data shows options open interest now surpassing futures by roughly $40 billion — a sign that the market is maturing toward defined-risk strategies rather than speculative leverage.

Gold’s Momentum Fades as Bitcoin Awaits Rotation

Gold’s record-breaking rally appears to be losing steam after its steepest weekly drop in over a decade. Bloomberg and Reuters both report that institutional investors are reassessing the durability of the move, with some beginning to rotate capital toward Bitcoin and other higher-beta assets.

Investor Anthony Pompliano highlighted what he calls a “great rotation” from gold into Bitcoin, noting that Bitcoin tends to trail gold by about 100 days in performance cycles. As gold cools, Bitcoin’s deep discount relative to equities could attract this migrating capital.

Conditions Align for a Long-Term Breakout

Historically, Bitcoin trading 30% below its Nasdaq fair value has signaled the later stages of accumulation phases rather than distribution tops. With stablecoin liquidity surging, leverage flushed out, and institutional inflows steady, analysts see the current setup as an opportunity window rather than a warning.

If macro sentiment stabilizes and the rotation from gold gains momentum, Bitcoin could swiftly close its valuation gap and reclaim fair value — a move that past cycles suggest could unfold before the end of the year.

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