Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin needs to reclaim $116,000 by Wednesday's daily close to maintain its standard October "golden week" gains, which have been consistent since 2015.
- •Historical data indicates that Bitcoin has experienced significant upside during this period in previous years.
- •Potential catalysts for a last-minute market lift include US interest-rate cuts and progress on a US-China trade deal.
Bitcoin's October "Golden Week" at Risk
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a critical window to salvage its standard October "golden week" performance, as the price struggles to hold above $113,000. Research from network economist Timothy Peterson highlights the urgency for BTC/USD to achieve a 7% gain by the end of Wednesday.
This period, often referred to as "Uptober," has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin seasonality. For Peterson, the weekly chart is a key area of focus, with specific attention paid to three seven-day periods that have reliably delivered gains since 2015: one each in February, March, and October.
The October "golden week," which concludes on October 29, has typically seen a 7% upside for BTC/USD. While the price briefly touched $116,000 on Tuesday, nearing the target, it has since retreated. Peterson noted, "Oct 29th marks the end of one of Bitcoin's three golden weeks when, in a typical year, Bitcoin gains 7% in a 7 day period (the others are in March and February)."
Currently, the golden-week gains stand at approximately 4.5%, falling short of historical averages and marking another disappointment for Bitcoin bulls who have seen October gains diminish throughout the month.
Despite the current performance, Peterson's previous research suggests that the Bitcoin bull market remains on track for new all-time highs, potentially exceeding $160,000 by December. He shared on X, "Bitcoin seasonality, which I have been following all year, is still tracking the 30th percentile. This implies a price of $162,000 in December."
Bitcoin seasonality, which I have been following all year, is still tracking the 30th percentile. This implies a price of $162,000 in December. pic.twitter.com/oETxhuvLBz
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 20, 2025
Potential Catalysts: Fed and Trade Deal
As the monthly close approaches, several factors could provide tailwinds for crypto and risk assets. The US Federal Reserve is anticipated to continue its interest rate cuts at its upcoming meeting on Wednesday. Concurrently, efforts are underway between the US and China to finalize a deal that would avert punitive trade tariffs.
Technically, Bitcoin's outlook remains promising in the short term, despite recent price dips. The relative strength index (RSI) is showing signs of recovery on hourly timeframes, following the printing of a hidden bullish divergence. This suggests potential upward momentum could resume.