Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin’s Wave III expansion could drive prices toward $200,000 to $240,000.
- •The long-term structure remains bullish despite flat futures market activity in Q4.
- •US economic rebound and risk-on sentiment may fuel Bitcoin’s next rally.
Long-Term Bullish Structure and Elliott Wave Analysis
Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term price structure is showing renewed strength as analysts anticipate the next phase of its parabolic expansion. According to market analyst Gert Van Lagen, Bitcoin has once again rebounded from its 40-week simple moving average (SMA).
Van Lagen stated that the corrective Wave II phase appears close to completion, with Wave III expansion on the horizon. Completion of the pattern could push BTC price to $200,000 to $240,000 in the coming months.
Van Lagen’s “step-like” Elliott Wave model suggests that Bitcoin forms a solid base before each major breakout. The same setup in 2019 and 2023 preceded steep rallies, suggesting that the current consolidation could be the launchpad for the next parabolic rally.
Crypto trader Jelle agreed, stating Bitcoin continues to face resistance near the midpoint of its long-term ascending price channel. Once the level is cleared, Jelle added that the channel’s upper boundary near $350,000 implies strong upside potential.
Macroeconomic Factors Favoring Risk Assets
Meanwhile, macroeconomic researcher Sminston With explained that broader economic conditions could soon favor risk assets like Bitcoin. With stated that the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a measure of business activity, has stayed below 50 for nearly three years, marking the longest economic slowdown since records began in 1948. Historically, such extended downturns are followed by strong rebounds as business cycles recover.
With argued that this rebound, or “mean reversion,” often drives investors back into higher-risk assets, setting the stage for an imminent risk-on environment. Thus, Bitcoin, being a high-growth and speculative asset, could become one of the main beneficiaries once confidence returns to markets.
Related: Bitcoin, ETH ETFs see $1.7B outflow, but whale buying softens price impact
BTC CME Gap Filled, Liquidation Signals Hint at Recovery
While the long-term structure remains bullish, Bitcoin’s short-term price action continues to seek confirmation. On Tuesday, BTC filled the CME gap formed over the weekend and is now attempting to establish a higher leg above the $105,000 level.
According to Glassnode, futures open interest is down following the Oct. 10 liquidation event, and derivatives activity is slowing across exchanges. The average BTC futures order size has also contracted sharply, reflecting reduced participation from whales and increased influence of smaller retail trades.
However, onchain liquidation patterns might be signaling a bullish reversal. Data from Hyblock Capital pointed out that clusters of long liquidations observed on Nov. 4 and Nov. 7, both near $100,000, preceded minor recoveries, suggesting localized mean reversion.
If recent liquidation pockets around the CME gap lead to another rebound, Bitcoin could form a bullish reversal pivot above $105,000, reinforcing the broader uptrend narrative outlined by analysts.
Related: Bitcoin price fills CME gap, but '$240M market dump' stops a $104K rebound