New on-chain readings show that wallets that entered positions within recent months are now sitting on the heaviest unrealized losses since the aftermath of the FTX disaster.
Analysts point to a collapse in the short-term profit-to-loss ratio, which has completely flipped from sustained profitability earlier this year to deep negative territory within days.
SHORT-TERM BITCOIN HOLDERS ARE FACING THEIR BIGGEST LOSSES SINCE THE FTX COLLAPSE. pic.twitter.com/vrHXkBrg3p
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) November 19, 2025
What makes this moment notable isn’t only that short-term holders are underwater — it’s the speed at which the reversal happened. Many traders moved from green into red in a single cascade, catching late buyers off-guard and triggering widespread defensive selling.
Year-to-Date Rally Now Washed Out
The market stress is visible well beyond on-chain metrics. Bitcoin, which earlier this year was one of the best-performing major assets globally, has now slipped back to nearly flat performance for 2025. Year-to-date data shows BTC hovering around +0.1%, essentially erasing all gains. Ethereum has fared even worse, sliding to –7.2%, confirming that the latest downturn is not isolated to Bitcoin but extends across the top of the market.
Bitcoin has officially erased its yearly gains 📉
YTD Performance:
BTC: +0.1%
ETH: -7.2%The market reset is real. pic.twitter.com/h1O4yKWowR
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) November 19, 2025
CryptoQuant analysts are referring to this stage not as a pullback but as a “reset phase,” where aggressive risk positioning, leveraged longs, and momentum-driven trading get flushed from the system. Historically, such periods have tended to set the stage for longer-term stability — but only after volatility cools.
Volatility Persists, Base-Building Seen as Likely
Technical traders watching intraday action note that Bitcoin did attempt a rebound from the lows, although the price recovery remains fragile. Many chartists see the recent bounce not as the end of downside pressure, but as the first sign of consolidation after an oversold washout.
$BTC made a good bounce yesterday, but volatility remains high.
All indications that the markets are a little overextended to the downside.
However, reversals take time, I would assume we'll be ranging around this area for a little while to build up a base before we're going to… pic.twitter.com/h91YntZlmZ
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) November 19, 2025
A well-followed market analyst commented that pricing remains overstretched to the downside relative to historical mean-reversion levels. The expectation among this group is not for an immediate V-shaped recovery, but for Bitcoin to spend time ranging within the current demand zone to form a base. In their view, the groundwork for the next uptrend is laid during phases where sentiment is exhausted and price moves sideways rather than sharply higher.
That interpretation aligns with prior cycle behavior: major reversals rarely ignite instantly but instead form gradually as fear subsides, liquidity rebuilds, and large buyers enter positions patiently.
Long-Term Investors Are Not Capitulating
While short-term wallets are under stress, long-term holders appear largely unmoved. Their activity remains low, and supply held for extended periods continues to rise — both traits typically associated with accumulation rather than distribution. Institutional participants especially show no sign of panic selling, reinforcing the divide between speculative capital and high-conviction capital.
Analysts warn, however, that it often takes time for market bottoms to finalize. Even if long-term holders set the floor, it is short-term sentiment that dictates day-to-day volatility. Until those traders stop chasing downside exits and forced deleveraging fully clears, Bitcoin’s price behavior is expected to remain choppy.
A Moment of Pressure — or a Stealth Opportunity?
Despite fear across social media, history suggests that deep short-term holder losses have previously aligned with multi-year accumulation opportunities — not market peaks. The same dynamic occurred in 2015, 2019, and late 2022. Each time, early capitulation gave way to a period in which patient capital gradually built exposure before rallies accelerated.
Whether the pattern repeats will depend on how quickly volatility cools and whether new liquidity re-enters the market. For now, the message from analysts is mixed: pain remains heavy in the short term, but value investors are closely watching this region rather than fleeing it.
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