Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a notable rally, increasing by 10% from its yearly open near $87,500. However, the cryptocurrency has stalled below a critical resistance level. Analysts suggest that the price remains positioned for further gains if key supply levels are reclaimed and sustained spot demand continues to build.
Key Takeaways:
- •Bitcoin must overcome resistance at $98,000 to pave the way for a six-figure price.
- •Persistent spot demand and continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are crucial for a breakout above $100,000.
BTC Price Must Overcome $98,000 Resistance
The price of Bitcoin has encountered repeated rejections from a supply zone situated between $93,000 and $110,000 since its rebounds began in November 2025. This zone represents the lower boundary of supply clusters held by long-term holders (LTHs), according to Glassnode's Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap. This region has consistently served as a transitional barrier, separating corrective phases from more durable bull markets. With the price once again testing this overhead supply, the market faces a familiar challenge: absorbing the distribution from long-term holders is a prerequisite for any broader trend reversal.
Bitcoin's bullish outlook is contingent on its price breaking through immediate resistance at $98,300, which is the short-term holder (STH) supply basis. This level signifies the aggregate entry price for investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days and acts as a critical indicator of market confidence. Sustained trading above this threshold would suggest that new demand is absorbing overhead supply, enabling recent buyers to remain profitable. Historically, reclaiming and holding above the Short-Term Holder cost basis has marked the transition from corrective phases into more durable uptrends.
Therefore, the ability of the BTC/USD pair to reclaim $98,000 is a vital prerequisite for restoring confidence in the sustainability of the current rally. Some analysts are optimistic about reaching the $100,000 mark this week, citing an upward trend. As previously reported, holding above the daily order block between $90,000 and $92,000 would strengthen the case for a sustained push above $100,000 before the end of the month.
Bitcoin Bulls Must Sustain Spot and ETF Demand
Bitcoin's potential to push above $100,000 appears plausible due to the resurgence of spot demand and consistent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin's spot market activity has shown improvement, with Binance and aggregate exchange cumulative volume delta (CVD) measures returning to a buy-dominant regime. This indicates a shift away from persistent sell-side pressure, signaling that traders are once again absorbing supply rather than distributing into strength. This transition back into a net-buying posture across major venues represents a constructive structural shift.
Meanwhile, demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs is showing signs of recovery. These investment products have recorded inflows for three consecutive days, totaling $1.7 billion, according to data from SoSoValue. The $843.6 million recorded on Wednesday was the highest single-day inflow of 2026 and marked the largest such figure since October 7, 2025.
Analysts believe that Bitcoin's price could go parabolic if ETF demand persists long-term. They note that just as gold rallied significantly after its supply was absorbed, a similar move could occur with Bitcoin. This is because ETFs are purchasing more BTC than the new supply being created. If ETF demand continues, eventually, sellers will exhaust their selling power.