The cryptocurrency market is abuzz with analysis regarding Bitcoin's price cycles, particularly a pattern identified by chart analyst Ali (@ali_charts). This pattern suggests that Bitcoin ($BTC) has historically reached its bull market peak precisely 1,064 days after the bear market bottom. This observation is based on the performance of the last two market cycles.
The recent all-time high for Bitcoin, reaching $126,220, aligns perfectly with this 1,064-day marker when calculated from the November 2022 low. This confluence of historical data and current price action, noted on October 23, 2025, has ignited discussions among investors and traders about whether Bitcoin has already hit its peak or if further upward movement is anticipated.
The Significance of the 1,064-Day Cycle
The chart analysis, utilizing TradingView data from 2015 to 2025, visually emphasizes the cyclical nature of Bitcoin's market behavior. The theory posits that a predictable rhythm, potentially influenced by Bitcoin halving events and shifts in market sentiment, governs these cycles.
In the last two cycles, Bitcoin $BTC hit its bull market top exactly 1,064 days after the bear market bottom.
— Ali (@ali_charts) October 23, 2025
From the Nov. 2022 bottom to the recent $126,220 all-time high, it's exactly 1,064 days again! pic.twitter.com/rg6wdwXAoc
However, the applicability of this historical pattern is being questioned due to the evolving landscape of the cryptocurrency market. Factors such as increased institutional adoption and significant policy shifts, including the recent pardon of Binance's Changpeng Zhao by President Trump, introduce new dynamics. This pardon, coinciding with Bitcoin's notable price increase beyond $111,000, has generated optimism for a potentially more favorable regulatory environment, which could further fuel the current rally.
Analyst Perspectives: Navigating Market Shifts
Skeptics argue that relying solely on historical data may not accurately reflect the current market, which is now significantly influenced by institutional capital and sovereign funds, a departure from the earlier retail-driven cycles. Ali, while acknowledging these potential shifts, maintains a cautious outlook, suggesting that while patterns can persist, "this time is different" could also hold true.
As Bitcoin hovers around the $110,700 mark, traders and analysts are weighing the reliability of the 1,064-day cycle against the emerging complexities of the modern crypto market. The community remains closely attentive, seeking to balance the insights from historical trends with the realities of an increasingly sophisticated and institutionalized market.