Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below its June support level near $98,000, establishing its first clear lower high–lower low structure on the daily chart since February 2025. The downward trend intensified on Friday, with BTC declining to $94,500, bringing it close to the $93,500 yearly open, a point that would negate its gains for the entire year.
Key Market Indicators
- •Bitcoin is facing the possibility of its first weekly close below the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) since 2023, potentially breaking a two-year uptrend.
- •Analysis indicates that all major short-term realized price bands have transitioned into resistance levels.
- •Short-term holders are experiencing significant losses, approaching capitulation levels of 12.79%.
A Two-Year Bitcoin Trend Under Pressure
After successfully defending the 50-week SMA last week with a rapid weekend rebound, Bitcoin is once again at risk of closing the week below this critical indicator. The price needs to climb back above $101,000 before Sunday to avoid this scenario.
This 50-week SMA has served as a structural support since September 2023, defining the current two-year uptrend. A confirmed weekly close below this level would not only invalidate this trend but also signal a weakening of BTC's bullish momentum, potentially leading to a broader market correction.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. highlighted the significance of the recent price breakdown, stating, "there is no support left in the market, all key metrics have flipped into resistance," following BTC's drop below $100,000 on November 14.
Current data reveals that several short-term holder (STH) realized price bands, which previously acted as reliable bounce zones, have now become overhead resistance levels. The STH 1W–1M realized price, situated near $102,400, and the STH 1M–3M band around $98,000, have both inverted after experiencing over $1.1 billion in liquidations.
However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Ju pointed to a potential stabilizing zone: the 6 to 12 month holder cost basis, which is located near $94,000. A rebound from this level could establish a technical floor. Conversely, a decisive close below this level on a higher timeframe could accelerate losses and confirm a bear market.
Short-Term Pain and Potential Capitulation
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that the price drop below $98,000 has caused significant stress among newer and short-term market participants. New investors are currently facing a 3.46% loss, while those who purchased within the last month are down 7.71%. The most affected group, short-term holders who bought within the past six months, are now enduring a substantial 12.79% loss.
The magnitude of these unrealized losses historically correlates with capitulation phases. During such periods, reactive traders tend to sell assets out of fear, which exacerbates declines but also clears the way for more resilient long-term holders. With short-term realized profit and loss decreasing by 13%, the data suggests that panic may be approaching its peak, often a precursor to the formation of a more stable recovery structure.